Alarming if true. It does seem to make quite a few assumptions around how this plays out.

eg seems to assume that frontier will continuously maintain a large and durable edge over say open models. That may hold true for say cyber defence but I reckon for a very large part of commercially useful activity something like K3 is “good enough”.

eg it seems plausible to me that intelligence commodifies and the American frontier labs drown in their debt. Not likely but possible

Put differently author assumes America runs away with it. I don’t think that’s a foregone conclusion