Let's not kid each other that the benefits of AI will flow to everyone in the US. The existing underclass will be come even bigger, and that will threaten stability and welfare for everyone.

Sure, maybe it's even worse in countries that have no AI at all - but does it really make a difference if 90% of the population is protesting in the streets instead of 70%?

Isn't it more likely that countries without native frontier models will use open-weights models that will let them be 70% as productive as countries that do?

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renegade-otter 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The biggest impact I think will be when it comes to starting a career. Young people will be forced to live with parents for years while they are an unpaid "apprentice".

In that sense, there is no need for college anymore - just spend the four years learning on the job (at least you won't have to pay for it even more).

	▲	eru 2 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Why do you think on the job learning will fare better than college?

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ben_w 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> Isn't it more likely that countries without native frontier models will use open-weights models that will let them be 70% as productive of counties that do?

Possibly, but sometimes being marginally better lets you win all the games. It can be difficult to guess what matters and how.

Also, may depend where the compute is physically located, which may depend on the cost of energy.

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Schiendelman 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

That's exactly why TSMC keeps beating the pants off Intel. Marginally better looks miles ahead in computing a lot of the time.

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eru 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Luckily, competing Chinese companies are selling cheaper and cheaper solar panels to anyone who's willing to take them.

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ben_w an hour ago | parent [-]

For now.

Globalisation's great right up until your manufacturing base decides they don't like you, or you them.

Reshoring is expensive for all the reasons offshoring was ever tempting in the first place, so we'll have to wait and see how this plays out.

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eru an hour ago | parent [-]

If China stops selling you solar panels tomorrow, you still have all the solar panels they sold you until now.

And why do you see reshoring as the only alternative? Seems like a false dilemma. There's more than two places on the globe.

	▲	ben_w 41 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		> If China stops selling you solar panels tomorrow, you still have all the solar panels they sold you until now. Which is great, unless demand for electricity goes up loads. > And why do you see reshoring as the only alternative? Seems like a false dilemma. There's more than two places on the globe. "Here" and "not here" is a complete set. I could also phrase it as "autarky or trade".