The whole cloud story lies on two aspects:

- Hyperscaling “we are going to serve billions of people in our applications”, which is becoming increasing unlikely as regional tech companies become more dominant than than the global one (this one is as much about geopolitics as technology)

- Operations is hard, in which case non-frontier models should be increasingly capable. Devops for small-ish deployment is one of the few cases where it is hard to clam you need deep expertise and AI can’t do it. Previously, the claim is that you need people specialized in ops, which is expensive. Now…

My prediction is that not just cloud LLM, but cloud business general will have to change. Not yet in the next 5 years, but probably 8-20 years-ish

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redrove 2 hours ago | parent [-]

I don’t disagree but saying “cloud will change in the next 8-20y-ish” is a bit of a non-argument, you’re not really stating any thesis to speak of; Change is a given over that time frame.

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NhanH 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Ah it was not explicit enough.

They will die, for some definitions of death -- I don't think they disappear, but they should be a niche, rather than the dominant doctrine.

	▲	redrove 2 hours ago \| parent [-]
		I’m not so sure I agree, given the overwhelming concentration of capital and regulatory capture they have, I just don’t see them going anywhere; becoming more niche rather than even more of a standard is “going away” to a certain extent as far as I can see.