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CoolestBeans a day ago

Certainly, but a flop of $1.5 trillion would create a deep and long trough. I think in that situation OpenAI and Anthropic probably don't survive as independent companies (where is the revenue? who would want to put more money in at that point?). In that situation there would definitely be a fire sale in the prices of licensing models (open weights are already pushing this way the hell down), semiconductors, data centers, and compute in general. And like in that situation, who knows what products come out of that dividend of cheap stranded assets? It might not even be AI related. You can do a lot of things with a lot of cheap GPU power. This boom-bust cycle is nothing new, especially to the tech industry. This deep crash outcome is the risk that a bet of $1.5 trillion makes. And it makes the current paradigm of coding agents and chatbots less likely because it is so volatile.