Okay, so you admit that they are possible, but they just might cost more than expected?

That's actually a reasonable prediction.

vel0city 16 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I've got little doubt they can put some kind of compute in orbit. Shit, load a tiny model on the next batch of Starlink birds, boom, space AI datacenter done. Will it be anywhere close to the numbers they're claiming? Will it actually be useful and competitive to terrestrial datacenters? I guess we'll see.

Did the Cybertruck have 500mi of range? Was there a $40k model at launch?

	▲	GMoromisato 15 hours ago \| parent [-]
		I think we're in full agreement. I don't know if orbital datacenters will work out--it depends on the price of launch and the price of tokens in 2030. Maybe they'll try it and abandon it. We'll see. But my point is that if it does work, if they can be cheaper than terrestrial tokens, then SpaceX can dominate the market because no one else is even close to being able to deploy orbital compute. And if it doesn't work, SpaceX will be fine because they are printing money with Starlink. Cybertruck is a good example--they never hit their sales targets, but Tesla is fine because they are making money on Model Y and they are investing in Robotaxi (which has a bigger potential than Cybertruck anyway). And if Robotaxi doesn't work out, they will pivot to a cheaper model or something. SpaceX will be fine, not because orbital datacenters are guaranteed, but because they keep betting on things that may or may not work, but if they do work, they make a ton of money.

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grim_io 17 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Many things are possible while still being very stupid.