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| ▲ | ben_w 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| In fairness, I agree that end-of-2025 AI probably could make a film so badly that 41% of the crew get cancer within 24 years: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Conqueror_(1956_film) |
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| ▲ | nubg 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| He might be off by a decade, but isn't necessarily wrong. |
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| ▲ | card_zero 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Is that a prediction about where "Hollywood quality" is heading? | |
| ▲ | mrhottakes an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | When someone makes a prediction but is off by a decade+, that prediction is, necessarily, wrong. | |
| ▲ | bazoom42 33 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | By that standard, no prediction can be wrong. |
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| ▲ | jnwatson 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| We're at the point now where we're seeing 30 second commercials that are mostly GenAI. In other words, this is a failure of degree, not of category. |
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| ▲ | ben_w 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Degree is the entire problem. I mean, four years back I was thinking: I don't know how long it will take, but Hollywood is obviously screwed the moment something like Stable Diffusion gets temporal coherency and stops randomly adding limbs, because the energy cost per image on my laptop multiplied by how many frames in a film and $0.1/kWh, is ballpark the same as the cost of a cinema ticket.
Right now temporal coherency is still quite limited, and the models still do enough daft things you can't easily take the first version even when cutting every 5 seconds.I still have no idea how far we are from something that would be good enough to render a Hollywood film. Well, a Hollywood that isn't a complete disaster. Writing it is a separate problem, my experiments there show gradual improvement that has now reached the level of "obviously not publishable but also slightly less bad than going on reddit and sorting posts in short story groups by most recent instead of upvoted". | | |
| ▲ | bazoom42 24 minutes ago | parent [-] | | But why is Hollywood screwed then? Same thing was said when cameras became cheap, when editing became cheep, and when internet made it possible for anyone to distribute movies: Now the movie industry is screwed because anyone with talent and an iphone can make and distribute a movie. Turns out there is more to it than that. |
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| ▲ | mrhottakes an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | Hollywood films and 30 second advertisements are different categories. |
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