> generational foresight not available to 99.999999999999999999% of 25 year olds. I want to get ahead of the default cynicism and "oh it's just dumb luck woe is me" aspect of HN.

And I want to get ahead of this absurd romanticism. I have plenty of counterpoints in all types of technical domains (3D printing, blockchain, you name it). Oracles don't exist, just stories of right place right time survivors.

> That's what he based the fund on.

His thesis was so true that his fund folded. Fancy that.

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askafriend 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

His fund did not fold.

In fact, the returns were so astronomical that they took a $35B loss (around 67%) which means they were still UP 80% for the year in 2026.

Today they have around $10B under management.

As an investor, how would you feel about being up 80% for the year? Exactly. They're having a phenomenal year.

	▲	mbesto 13 minutes ago \| parent \| next [-]
		He sold the fund to another buyer - it folded by every definition of the term.
	▲	mondojesus an hour ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		This is only true if newer investors get pro-rata ownership of the Anthropic stake. If that position is side-pocketed, then any investors who were not there at the time of the Anthropic allocation are looking at around 90% loss on their investment.

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gorgolo 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

His fund didn’t fold btw. They sold / were forced to sell a position that was several hundred percent up at a very very bad price relative to peak. AFAIK the fund is still up on the year though.

	▲	mbesto 9 minutes ago \| parent \| next [-]
		It did. It's not part of the strategy or operating agreement of a GP/LP structure to sell a specific fund to another investment firm at a discount. The fund may buy and sell assets to create returns for LPs but selling the fund itself at a discount is not a successful exit, e.g. they folded.
	▲	modeless 2 hours ago \| parent \| prev \| next [-]
		AIUI they were forced to sell all their positions in public companies at a net loss. The fund is still up for the year only because of a prior investment in Anthropic.
	▲	mrhottakes an hour ago \| parent \| prev \| next [-]
		Sounds like a fold to me.
	▲	watwut 2 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		That is called folding the fund. It did in fact fold. "My fund would not fold if I made different hypothetical decisions" argument means your fund did in fact fold. Yes, being unable to pay margin call means your fund is folding.