Morale is so bad that people are trying to off themselves and they aren't even being shot at yet. I have low faith in the USN in the event of a Taiwan contingency. And I think the idea that they can force Iran to their knees with a blockade is looking sillier every day. Brutal.

> I have low faith in the USN in the event of a Taiwan contingency

Morale tends to be very different when you're acting as the reactor to some other actor on the offensive, you act (you think at least) as a defender of some larger idea of "peace". But when you instead gets sent out as the aggressor, you don't really have much to defend and hold on to, and it gets harder and harder for people to justify what they're there to do.

Say China were to invade Taiwan and there would be outright war, then a lot of people would feel differently about participating in that, compared to participating with the US acting as an aggressor against Iran for little rhyme or reason.

I've long theorized that if a hot war with China happened, the US would get beaten up very badly, at first.

Likely burning through stockpiles of weapons (obvious now), plus not do well against modern drone warfare and a China that can pump out drastically more weapons, ships, etc.

Would we likely get our act together? I don't even know anymore. But it would not go well in the beginning.

At this pace, there will be no "Taiwan contingency." At least one that the US is going to get involved with kinetically.