Every 24 months of EV production in China destroys 1 million barrels a day of global oil demand, as of this comment, at current rates of EV production. We should expect these rates of production will continue to increase. Total annual light vehicle sales are ~90M units. Globally, over 1-in-5 (22%) of new cars sold were electric in 2024. This share was 92% in Norway, and in China, it was almost 50%. In 2025, it was 1-in-4 (25%). The world has 20-30M units/year of EV manufacturing capacity. Light vehicles and heavy vehicles are solved for with battery electric.

Aviation and petrochemical use cases are unlikely to disappear in our lifetimes, but that is a small slice of today's oil demand, and will be the remainder as renewables and batteries eat global energy demand. Like bankruptcy, the change happens slowly, and then all of a sudden.

Norway EV sales and related data - https://robbieandrew.github.io/EV/

Global oil price stuck in triple digits. Goldman Sachs says it may stay there for years - https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/20/energy/oil-gas-prices-intl-hn... - March 20th, 2026

Our World In Data: Tracking global data on electric vehicles - https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales

Electric Cars Pass a Crucial Tipping Point in 23 Countries - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-28/electric-... | https://archive.today/e8XSt - August 27th, 2023