I am just repeating the 'gist' I've gotten from my research on the topic, but the risk of AMOC shutdown has gone from a low probability / high impact prediction by 2100, to 'we think there's a strong chance of hitting a tipping point by 2060'. I wish I could point you to a specific paper, but I'm going entirely off memory, and that is fallible

The % likelyhood by x date predictions have swayed back and forth as we've adjusted our predictions of which emissions path we actually wind up following.

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user43928 11 hours ago | parent [-]

I'd highly recommend the analysis I linked if you did not yet check it, he discusses various papers and differences in definitions.

Last updated in June.

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wing-_-nuts 10 hours ago | parent [-]

Took a min to read the link, that was a surprisingly good summary.

My whole concern with the AMOC is that given it's a non-linear system, and we've seen evidence of 'fast shutdowns' in the climate record before, I fear we are sleepwalking towards an event that could have catastrophic consequences for the global south, and problems there do not stay there. People flee rather than starve.

I also worry what happens to western liberal democracy under the weight of that influx if we're already seeing populism from today's level of migration.

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raffraffraff 10 hours ago | parent [-]

If your country suddenly has hundreds of thousands (or even millions) of weather migrants from countries with vastly different cultures and values to yours, you'll be wishing that populism was your biggest concern.

	▲	wing-_-nuts 8 hours ago \| parent [-]
		We are actually fortunate. Folks from LATAM seem to have no problem integrating with US society. Europe seems to have a much harder time with their pool of migrants. Probably due to the lack of birthright citizenship