> Likewise “stock up Monday” doesn’t imply “stock down Tuesday” but “CEO arrested for fraud on Monday” does

Stock market is even more pathological than weather here. Most statistical tools have baked-in assumptions about some degree of independence between factors under analysis. In weather, things are hard, because everything affects everything but in some random sense. With stock market, it's worse, because some things affect others in an adversarial way. A pattern discovered is not merely drowned in noise, but rather actively canceled out as other people discover and act on it. The way to describe this in formal terms is, I believe, that the stock market is "anti-inductive".

Fortunately, most things we deal with life are much friendlier to predictions than weather or stock prices.

> I think people are seeing

Better late than never, given that this has been empirically demonstrated two years ago by Anthropic. I actually don't understand why people don't make a bigger deal out of it - maybe it's because the AI hype/hate fight is sucking all attention from the room. But the point is: we not only have a thing that can learn concepts we recognize and build abstract world model, but also we have a degree of visibility and control of it we never had before. We can't see, much less suppress or stimulate individual concepts or concept groups in a human brain directly, but we can with LLMs.