I am currently in the countryside, outside of the USA.

I speak to folks about the USA sometimes, and guns come up. We are known for that. They think they want them. I get it... they do sound cool.

I try to explain that in the USA, the ratio of guns to people is far above 1:1. Therefore, if I was a police officer approaching any car, I would assume that the driver had a gun. That reality increases the chances of bad things happening due to human factors. "Do you really want every speeding pull-over to become a twitchy wild-west situation? Maybe your kids are in the car!"

Sometimes, this seems to wake people up to the reality of ubiquitous firearms. Please note, I am not making judgements here. These just seem like facts.

▲ throw0101d 10 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> I try to explain that in the USA, the ratio of guns to people is far above 1:1. Therefore, if I was a police officer approaching any car, I would assume that the driver had a gun.

Except that majority of households (58%) do not have a firearm:

* https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/07/24/key-facts...

and when it comes to individuals, it is the majority (70%) that do not own one. The numbers are 'skewed' by a few individuals that own a lot of them. Statistically you'd be more correct to assume the person in the car does not have one (unless, perhaps, they're a white guy):

* https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2017/06/22/the-dem...

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scottLobster 10 hours ago | parent [-]

Uh, if you had a 30% chance of encountering an armed individual as a cop, you'd damn well assume they were armed every time. That's one in three traffic stops, and you probably do a lot more than three as a cop. Keep in mind that number will be a lot higher depending on your locality.

If I'm ever elected God Emperor of the United States I'm going to make beating XCOM 2 a high school graduation requirement just to impart some basic statistical intuition into the population. Everyone needs the experience of having a 99% chance to hit and missing the shot, let alone 70%.

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throw0101d 10 hours ago | parent [-]

> Uh, if you had a 30% chance of encountering an armed individual as a cop, you'd damn well assume they were armed every time.

I understand that thinking (see also 'would you play Russian roulette with those odds?'), but the "(>)1:1" comments hides the underlying distribution, which I think colours how people think about the (alleged) pervasiveness of firearms in the US.

As another example of perception versus reality, most people probably don't think of Canada as 'gun country', but we're in the top ten per capita (probably because of the history/culture of hunting up here):

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimated_number_of_civilian_g...

And if you're going to teach people about odds and statistics, perhaps it will help people understand that guns tend to make people's homes less safe:

* https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2013/03/guns-in-homes-a...

	▲	consumer451 7 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		> but the "(>)1:1" comments hides the underlying distribution, which I think colours how people think about the (alleged) pervasiveness of firearms in the US. GGParent commentator here. My point is: let's role-play as a police officer pulling over a car in the average US State vs. the average EU country. In both of those continents, we cops have guns. However, what are the chances that the driver has one? In the EU, would you ever have your hand on your holster while just approaching the pulled-over speeder? Only in very special cases. Meanwhile, you better in the USA, right? I mean, you have your owns kids at home, and there is a decent chance whoever you just pulled over has a gun, right? --- crosschecked stats: (please confirm) "While about 32% of US adults personally own a firearm, the individual gun ownership rate across the EU sits much lower at roughly ~5% of the total population." However, due to gun availability, concealed carry, and handguns... "A person in the United States is roughly 200 times more likely to have a loaded, accessible gun in their car cabin compared to a person in the European Union." So, as a police officer in the USA pulling over a car, I should be around 200x more worried about making it home to my family. Two hundred freaking x. No wonder US police officers are freaked the fuck out. I would be as well. (200x is a guesstimate. However, a sanity check using US carry surveys and EU carry-permit numbers lands somewhere in the 60x–400x range)
	▲	scottLobster 8 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		You want to talk perception vs reality and then post that? Yes, merely owning a gun does make you statistically more likely to die of a gun shot, but only in the same sense that owning alcohol mean you're more likely to drive drunk, owning a car means you're more likely to die in a car crash, and having a house wired for electricity means you're more likely to die of electrocution. For instance, that article says that the risk of suicide is 5x higher with a gun in the house. Well my risk of suicide is presently zero, and 5 x 0 = 0. There's a great deal of individual control over the risk when it comes to personal ownership. Compare that to a cop who is professionally obligated to pull over a large sample of people they don't get to select, and this sample is disproportionately violent or otherwise untrustworthy.

▲ Draiken 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Whether or not the people being investigated have guns or not, won't showing up with guns up escalate the situation rather than defuse?

I would be absolutely terrified if people with guns came up to me, whether they're cops or not, and if I had a gun with me, I'd be much more likely to go for it in that scenario compared to a normal human interaction. But IDK, maybe I'm an outlier?

▲ giantg2 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

"Do you really want every speeding pull-over to become a wild-west situation? Maybe your kids are in the car!"

That sort of thing depends on what is "normal". Many states in the US could have around 10% of the population carrying a firearm. Armed interactions with the police are common and the vast majority are a non-issue. The typical police response to "I have a license to carry and a firearm in the vechicle" is typically "Where is it? Just don't touch it". Happens all the time.

Now, is there a statistical difference? Maybe. It's hard to say because you would need to apply the same policing culture, legal system, and population dynamics to a lesser armed country. I don't know of any good choices for that combination.

	▲	seanw444 9 hours ago \| parent [-]
		More than half the country doesn't even require a license to carry anymore, and mentioning it in those states also doesn't typically warrant anything more than an "alright just don't touch it."

▲ skinfaxi 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> "Do you really want every speeding pull-over to become a wild-west situation? Maybe your kids are in the car!"

Why would every speeding pull-over become a wild-west situation? If possessing a gun is a right, then mere possession is no reason to suspect criminality is afoot.

▲ Barbing 10 hours ago | parent [-]

What if you assume 1 in 100 are going to be dangerous? Only rarely does the driver say “I’m not going back to jail!“ when they have warrants out.

If you inspect rollercoasters I figure you could probably be pretty lackadaisical on the average inspection. If you don’t take each one deadly seriously though and there’s no way of knowing when it’s important to, maybe it comes flying off the track, so you follow your checklist each and every time without exception.

(So glad I’m not employed to or in a position where I need to own weapons.)

▲ skinfaxi 10 hours ago | parent [-]

When in enemy territory, the military looks at civilian populations as potential enemy combatants. Police are not supposed to view everyone this way as they are in their communities and not enemy territory.

▲ Barbing 10 hours ago | parent [-]

It’s both unfortunate police are trained with videos of cops approaching motorists and getting filled with bullets, and unfortunate those are real situations. I wish there were a way to guarantee officer safety so you didn’t have to tell them “domestic violence incidents and traffic stops should scare you” (most dangerous police situations IIRC).

You reminded me of a salient line in BSG:

  “There’s a reason you separate the military and the police. One fights the enemy of the state, the other serves and protects the people. When the military becomes both, then the enemies of the state tend to become the people.”

-Adama, Battlestar Galactica

	▲	skinfaxi 9 hours ago \| parent [-]
		That is indeed what I had in mind when writing my comment!

▲ 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

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▲ computerex 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

While I agree with need more and better gun control, American police officers are abhorrent for a very simple reason: lack of basic training, discipline, and practically zero screening/qualification process.

Anyone can become a cop in 6 months. Not everyone is temperamentally setup to be a great cop. That, there, lies the rub.

▲ fedpost 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

What if we just didn't have as many police interactions? They love pulling people over because it let's them run everyone for warrants.