| ▲ | mhurron an hour ago | |
> at least to predict that a quake we see is likely to be a precursor to a much larger one or is likely that peak. That we can basically do. "Observations show that the chance of an earthquake being followed by a larger one nearby and within a week is about 5%." https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-probability-earthquake-a-fore... It is an incredibly safe bet that any earthquake is not the sign of a larger one. | ||
| ▲ | gpm an hour ago | parent [-] | |
5% within a week is a very high set of odds for such rare events. Or to look at it from the other more relevant direction 70% of magnitude 7 or larger quakes have detected foreshocks... | ||