The most fascinating thing about this is how oil futures markets were able to capture this while the media was endlessly blasting stories about oil shortages.

Anyone paying attention to oil prices since the start of the war has been confused about the total disconnect between oil future and the existential situation on the ground. Even the media seemed mystified by this.

Well, now we all know the answer.

▲ tristanj 18 hours ago | parent [-]

No, it's because oil is still transiting the strait. A select group of tankers has been bypassing the Iranian "blockade" and ferrying oil across for months now.

> US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Wednesday that the American military continues to escort barrels through Hormuz, and that about 13 million barrels a day are leaving the Gulf — half through the strait and half via bypass pipelines. US Central Command said on Wednesday that since early May, it has helped about 500 million barrels of oil leave Hormuz, suggesting roughly 5.6 million barrels a day over the period.

https://gcaptain.com/hormuz-oil-shuttling-trade-is-picking-u...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/06/05/us-secretl...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-16/dark-ship...

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-is-using-an-irani...

▲ edaemon 17 hours ago | parent | next [-]

That doesn't fully explain it, the amount of oil making it through the strait is a small fraction (less than 25%) of the amount that normally flows through there.

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11 hours ago | parent | next [-]

[deleted]

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tristanj 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Exports from the gulf are only down to 13 million barrels/day from 20 million barrels/day. Gulf exporters are not running at 25% capacity.

	▲	edaemon 7 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Right, but oil transiting the strait is down below 25% of its normal amount.

▲ nextaccountic 14 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> No, it's because oil is still transiting the strait.

This Youtuber did a napkin math to show this effect, plus the land pipeline and other supply increases can't be the sole explanation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkA0bkb6ZO0

There was a sharp decrease in demand too, and China did it without domestic oil shortages

▲ tristanj 11 hours ago | parent [-]

That author greatly overstates China’s role as the single savior and doesn't address the covert fleet of tankers doing daily blockade runs.

He (wrongly) attributes everything to China.

	▲	defrost 9 hours ago \| parent [-]
		> attributes everything to China aside from: `petro-monarchs in Abu Dhabi and Riyadh [...] Ministers in Washington and Tokyo [...] state-led rationing in poorer countries` as listed in the first paragraph.

▲ kajaktum 18 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

There’s also a landed pipeline that is able to carry oil out to the west

	▲	IAmBroom 18 hours ago \| parent [-]
		It's all of these. If you maintain any major export path, or decrease demand, prices rise far less than they would otherwise.

▲ petesergeant 18 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Adding in this chart: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/oil-producer-...