I agree with you in the broad strokes, but replacement by LLMs isn't the only way the level of employment can be reduced. If LLMs can make it so that two programmers can do the work that used to require five, that can result in a very large reduction in employment, even while having (some) programmers is still essential.

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tunesmith 3 hours ago | parent [-]

On the bet that layoffs will result in programmers ending up at 40% of the staffing level they are now, I will take the over.

	▲	Calazon 2 hours ago \| parent [-]
		What sources do you think are good for this data for the recent past? My brief initial search is turning up a lot of contradictory data, probably because the sources are defining "programmers" differently from each other.