Most of the people who say LLMs will replace developers have never built and deployed a real app. I know someone working on an app that they were deploying and after "writing" thousands of lines of code with Codex, they needed help to deploy it despite getting pretty clear (IMO) instructions from the LLM. Later they were struggling to set up a test environment or add backups to the point that I was worried they might break production.

The few people who manage to write good quality production apps with AI are developers whether they like it or not and that number isn't high enough to obsolete existing developers.

LLMs will certainly replace most developers. Most developers dont know that "computer" was a profession not long ago (and a quite demanding one).

You are conflating "not understanding how to build software" with "not knowing how to write code". Most developers I've crossed paths with couldn't build a consistent library, let alone a complete, well written, architecturally sound and useful application. Sure, I also know plenty that don't fall into that category but those are the few.

Problems with deploy? Ask claude, use ssh with key-based auth and he will take care of it :) just saying.

I've been writing code "almost daily" for the last 35 years; been doing it professionally for at least 29 years. I've been around, and my peers consider me a proficient developer. I've built stuff ranging from embedded/os level development to DSL languages, from 3D programming to VBA macros. I wrote software used by me, and wrote software used by millions. In some cases, I've maintained products written by me nore than a decade. By your definition, I must be wrong, truth is I can afford to be wrong - my job is not writing code, is designing solutions. Writing code is often the easiest part, and we're mostly automating it. Thank god.