Given how much pressure there is to rig results with these markets, I see this going well.

If the hundreds of millions of dollars attached to the outcome doesn’t already create that pressure, tens of thousands connected to the prediction market won’t matter.

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autoexec 9 hours ago | parent [-]

Right now a very limited number of people have a huge stake in how clinical trials turn out. Gambling markets open the field up for all kinds of people to make a bunch of money by interfering in the outcome

	▲	quickthrowman 6 hours ago \| parent [-]
		If a company with a drug in clinical trials is publicly traded, going long or short on shares of that company is functionally equivalent to a binary bet on the outcome. Stock in a biotech company that has a drug in clinical trials is equity with a pseudo embedded binary option which resolves when the trial results are announced. A stock can triple or fall by 2/3rds depending on the trial results. Investors and speculators are already betting on the outcome of drug trials with hundreds of millions or billions of dollars in capital in public stock markets.