| ▲ | This Mine Predicts Major Wars. It's Opening Again(bloomberg.com) |
| 53 points by mooreds 3 hours ago | 19 comments |
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| ▲ | throw0101d 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| Bloomberg's Odd Lots interivew on this with the author, "The Tungsten Market Is Warning of an Upcoming War": * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5xLxM-TzBPY * https://omny.fm/shows/odd-lots/the-tungsten-market-is-warnin... * https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tungsten-market-is... |
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| ▲ | Ccecil an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| A company local makes mining trucks [1]. At one event I was at I spoke with someone who was tied into the company and they said that when wars happen their business picks up because copper mining starts back up. War apparently needs a lot of copper too.
I never looked into it to verify but it seemed like an interesting bit of data. [1] https://gfworldwide.com/ |
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| ▲ | Planktonne 8 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > ...attracting the attention of many players, including the president of the United States. Donald Trump’s sons are collaborating with the family of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on a tungsten project in Kazakhstan, according to the New York Times. The US government is considering supporting the mining venture with federal loans. Fascinating to see how completely normalised this sort of thing has become in the US. |
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| ▲ | thisisauserid 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Dolphin tungsten mine in Australia. |
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| ▲ | IAmGraydon 21 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| This is the entirety of their thesis on its war prediction powers, BTW: >First opened in 1917 to support munitions production in World War I, it shut down three years later when peace crashed the tungsten market. Starting up again in 1938 on the eve of World War II, it was saved twice more as conflict broke out first in Korea and then Vietnam. In 1990, exactly 12 months after the fall of the Berlin Wall, it closed, seemingly for good. The title is clickbait. |
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| ▲ | nphardon an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| If you look at antiwar.com, we seem to be in the throes of World War. |
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| ▲ | badc0ffee an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Major W for Australia. |
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| ▲ | zuzululu an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Tungsten is mostly used in artillery, tank shells, it will take some time to ramp up which makes me think the timing is peculiar along with the happenings in Europe. |
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| ▲ | anon48293 an hour ago | parent [-] | | Why is it peculiar? Ukraine needs a lot of ammo and the EU is massively ramping up production | | |
| ▲ | zuzululu 35 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Ukraine is a lost cause at this point and EU doesn't want the war to continue as it is and Russia wants an exit as well. Neither side has anything to gain by prolonging the war. I'm happy to hear your case for why Kiev currently have no effective air defence and facing dwindling man power. If EU truly cared about Ukraine they wouldn't be in this current position. Doesn't make sense why they would withhold resources that Ukraine desperately needs at the moment if they are just beginning to ramp up production now. By the time the current build up is done which will take years, Ukraine will not be a sovereign nation at its current rate. For Russia's perspective, a regime change is their ultimate goal, not territory. Once the corridor is secure they are likely to turn to Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania. The bigger conflict seems to point to baltic states that would draw in NATO and thats the one that EU seems to be preparing for, not Ukraine. | | |
| ▲ | KaiserPro 4 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Assuming your thesis is correct: the war in ukraine is a dead end and the EU should let russia finish what it started (parahpraasing, I apologise if I miss the nuance) Surely that would mean _another_ russian friendly Satellite state that can be used as an invasion point by a resurgent russia? Surely its in the best interest of the EU (and US, because trading partner and sphere of influence) to make sure ukraine wins? keeping russia in its box and stop it expanding westwards? |
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| ▲ | lightedman 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| Not only is it opening up but several other large scale projects are already being considered in the USA, including one in Atolia, California that I have been privileged enough to personally visit. Watch the markets for the metals most used in wartime. That tells you pretty quickly when conflict is near. |
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| ▲ | gs17 2 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | This isn't so much "conflict is near" as much as reaction to a defense-related policy. The entire US defense supply chain will be banned from >80% of tungsten supply at the end of the year. | |
| ▲ | jgilias an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | I wonder if there’s path dependence there. It _seems_ like just because you build up lots of “defence” tech that doesn’t necessarily mean you _have_ to use it? Or does it? I wonder what happened with those markets during the Cold War. | | |
| ▲ | edoceo an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | Maybe it's also for USA to rebuild supply? That is, if you believe the "US spent too many missiles in Iran" stories. | | |
| ▲ | mcmcmc 36 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Why would you not believe them? Our defense manufacturing base has withered just like all the other manufacturing sectors. They’re being used faster than they’re being made and no one really planned for this war. Same reason the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is so low. | | |
| ▲ | zuzululu 13 minutes ago | parent [-] | | I think it's the same bubble that many in the West live in because they have been at peace mostly and cant fathom that much of it has been from de facto state of detente from states that are now threatened by its economic order. Iran and Russia figured out a way to arbitrage expensive AD that were designed to take down jets and other ballistic missiles with predictability at scale and its still a source of disbelief particularly in the mainstream. Drones have rewritten the rules of modern warfare and we will likely see maps change as a result. |
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| ▲ | galangalalgol an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | "αὐτὸς γὰρ ἐφέλκεται ἄνδρα σίδηρος." And the movie having just come out. |
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