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eru 8 hours ago

What kind of default risk?

What we got in 2008 was central banks (eg Fed and ECB) willfully collapsing nominal GDP in their economies. Have a look at the dot-com bust or Black Monday for comparison.

pjc50 8 hours ago | parent [-]

> willfully collapsing nominal GDP

What on earth are you talking about?

The credit risk was a very real problem; Kaupthing, Anglo Irish, RBS, Lehman etc.

eru 8 hours ago | parent [-]

We just had a string of bank failures, like Silicon Valley Bank, but you will not see any impact in the macro-economic data (like unemployment), because the Fed kept nominal spending on track.

In 2008 they didn't. Instead they actively tightened monetary policy by eg introducing interest on excess reserves. The ECB even hiked interest rates.

Companies defaulting on debt doesn't need to bring down the economy.

For the US, you can also see how the construction sector had been winding down for years (eg as measured in construction employment) without an impact on overall unemployment. The crisis was entirely avoidable.

See https://www.cato-unbound.org/2009/09/14/scott-sumner/real-pr... for a bit more background.