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gpt5 11 hours ago

It's private companies making a bet on the AI boom.

What governments do (which is the actual content of the article) is betting on economic growth to exceed the growing debt.

missedthecue 11 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Betting on economic growth exceeding the piling up of debt is something most governments around the world have been doing for about 40 years straight now.

spwa4 10 hours ago | parent [-]

Exactly, this is MUCH less betting anything as it is evaluating options and picking the most thinly veiled excuse to keep spending:

1) economic reality of an aging population and the gdp = population * efficiency equation, which now in every last EU country requires constant reductions in government spending until, at minimum 2050

2) find some excuse to predict economic growth and keep (or even increase) spending, note: this is not something these governments necessarily actually believe, this is something to tell investors

This is an extremely self-serving money NOW effort where someone used a secondhand crayon to write "strategy" on it. But it's not like governments actually have a real choice in this, a message the people for example gave to French government, a big unmissable message set in flame across the streets of Paris.

The truth is that stock market margin debt, what usually sets of crises, is not at cycle highs, surprisingly, it's at maybe 60-70%. Government debt is high but is at about 70% of the hillbilly point, the point where new borrowing only gives you interest payments and no longer enables you to spend more. Which means company spending will rise and government spending will rise for ~2 years from this point forward.

UncleOxidant 11 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Which is their dangerous bet on the AI boom.

forgetfreeman 11 hours ago | parent [-]

Previously on We Bet On Unlimited Growth, the global financial meltdown of 2008. If I was even slightly less cynical I'd honestly wonder how many times they're going to stick a fork in the same outlet in my lifetime.

yxhuvud 11 hours ago | parent [-]

There was what? At least three boom and bust cycles involving railroads. Do we have any good reason to believe the computing revolution will be nicer? So far we've had one bust. We now know the topic for the second while the timing remains hard to guess.

juusto 6 hours ago | parent [-]

We've had one bust, yes. How about second buster?

amberjack 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Staring down the mountain of debt and thinking about how much needs to be cut or taxes raised to get anything resembling balance is no fun so we get this grasping at straws. At least the US has room to raise taxes unlike the EU.

itake 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Governments offer tax incentives for AI investments.

mono442 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The problem with public debt is vastly overestimated. It mostly doesn't matter at all. It can be just rolled over forever like it always was.

It's the private debt which is the problem since individuals and enterprises don't have the capability the governments have to roll it over forever.

goalieca 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Interest payment on public debt is already one of our biggest line items, top 2 or 3 in Canada. Federally and provincially. I believe it’s why interest rates are being kept low. We’re not doing good at all.