| ▲ | DivingForGold 4 hours ago | |
>If Taiwan toasts TSMC when that happens ... You can bet that all TSMC chip factories in Taiwan have strategic installs of explosives just for this scenario, China will get nothing, and the US has multiple TSMC chip factories now and will gladly accept Taiwan victims. | ||
| ▲ | maxglute 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | |
Bad bet, wanking about TW blowing up their golden goose fabs is US hopium/threat - literally US Army War College insinuated US would blow up fabs to deny PRC while TW politicians/defense minister retorted under no circumstances was that acceptable nor would they evacuate semi talent to US before women and children. Not that they could under PRC blockade/quarantine. The entire notion is fundamentally stupid, TW with fabs is at least useful to PRC and sustains wealth after, or they'd be subsistence pineapple farmers. US has 0 TSMC factories that would operate for long with TW semi sole supplier, Arizonal would grind to halt until US reshores every piece of semi supply chain which even CHIPS ACT didn't pretend US was capable of. Only PRC pursuing end to end full vertical semi integration. TW goes byebye in next few years, PRC will likely be capable of making wholey indigenize 7+nm while entire western semi is fucked because they lost TW inputs. Now consider PRC land based munitions can make anything on TW go byebye in 7 minutes, reality is PRC has maximum semi leverage during war while US has semi leverage during peacetime (lawfare/export controls etc). | ||
| ▲ | toomuchtodo 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | |
As mentioned, they won’t need the fabs. They’re spending tens of billions of dollars to advance their own vertical chip industry. The US just pulled temporary status from hundreds of thousands of Hatians, so I wouldn’t be so confident what the future looks like for Taiwanese refugees in the US. TLDR China is going to build whatever chip technology they need to accomplish their technology and geopolitical goals. They have the resources, the will, and the time. China’s EUV Lithography Progress: Parsing Signal From Noise - https://thediplomat.com/2026/07/chinas-euv-lithography-progr... - July 2nd, 2026 China begins mass production of homegrown DUV chipmaking tools - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49076684 - July 2026 China Tells Telecom Carriers to Phase Out Foreign Chips by 2027 (2024) - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48767466 - July 2026 US tells ASML it is concerned China may have top chip tool - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48602369 - June 2026 | ||