We can. It’ll be hard, but sometimes you gotta buck up and do hard things instead of being lazy. We won’t do it unless we’re forced to, business as usual is simply too cozy for decision makers, politically, in capital markets, and at multinationals making decisions. Wealthy and powerful people want to remain wealthy and powerful, a tale as old as time.

2-3C means potentially >2-4 billion excess deaths over the next ~50 years from climate change. As long as global oil supply chains are low volatility and low risk, we continue on that path.

Ukraine has disabled 30-40% of Russia’s refinery capacity almost entirely with drones, for example.

TLDR it is not bad for the global oil supply chain to experience pain, it’s the primary factor in accelerating electrification and decarbonization.

https://actuaries.org.uk/media/ni4erlna/planetary-solvency.p... (page 32 risk impact matrix)

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Ukraines-...

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OneDeuxTriSeiGo 7 hours ago | parent [-]

That's not really the argument they are making I believe. The issue is if you suddenly cut back oil countries pivot to bringing coal back because it's the fastest to scale up.

Some places may scale up natural gas but unless a regional already has a lot of LNG infrastructure in place, a sudden drop in oil means bringing back coal.

And coal is of course far worse than oil.

Gradual sustained economic pressure will push a move to cleaner alternatives but a sudden shock leaves countries with exactly one option: bring back coal so the lights and heat/AC stay on.

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mrtesthah 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

>The issue is if you suddenly cut back oil countries pivot to bringing coal back because it's the fastest to scale up.

That may have been true a couple of decades ago, but as of 2023[1] it was significantly cheaper to build new solar than to continue operating existing coal plants. And building new coal plants takes 5 years.

1. https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2023/01/30/building-new-solar-pr...

	▲	wasfgwp 2 hours ago \| parent [-]
		It’s not that useful if you don’t have enough storage. And in more northern latitude you’ll still need to turn those plants back on since just won’t at all for at least a couple of months in winter.

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toomuchtodo 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Asia is cancelling LNG plans for renewables, and many markets have seen EV sales explode. Coal plants are more expensive than new renewables and batteries, existing generators may run longer, but aren’t going to be built in any material amount.

China, Europe, and the US can build ~25-30M EVs per year with existing manufacturing capacity, as of this comment. That is 1/4th of global annual light vehicle sales. We can deploy ~1TW of solar PV globally annually. The world reached 3TW of total solar PV generating capacity this year. China's energy from coal has declined below 50% this year. Energy storage production continues to ramp right behind renewables. These are straightforward systems problems, there are no blockers or technical limitations.

TLDR Strongly agree existing coal generators might generate more and longer than they otherwise would, but clean tech trajectory will only get pulled more vertical from further oil energy supply shocks.

China's EV Boom Is Quietly Undermining Oil's Biggest Chokepoint - https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Chinas-EV-Boom-Is... - August 4th, 2026

China’s LNG and coal demand slows as renewable energy surges - https://www.rinnovabili.net/policy-and-affairs/environmental... - August 3rd, 2026

Renewables To Squeeze Oil And Gas Imports In New Electric Age For Asia - https://www.forbes.com/sites/ianpalmer/2026/06/23/renewables... - June 23rd, 2026

From Australia to Vietnam, the Iran war is fuelling demand for EVs - https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/4/27/from-australia-t... - April 27th, 2026

EV demand is getting a boost from the Iran war — just as auto giants pivot back to combustion engines - https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/02/evs-autos-energy-oil-iran-wa... - April 2nd, 2026

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wasfgwp 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Solar doesn’t really work in Europe during winter outside pf the southern countries so you still need alternative sources.

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shaewest 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I feel as if you missed their point. Their point from my understanding is, coal might be more expensive than new renewables/batteries, but it's significantly quicker to get up and running so if you have a choice between quick coal and nothing, coal will be chosen.

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triceratops 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> coal might be more expensive than new renewables/batteries, but it's significantly quicker to get up and running

How so? I can have a crew out installing panels tomorrow.

	▲	wasfgwp 2 hours ago \| parent [-]
		10-100+ MW of panels?

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toomuchtodo 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I am not missing the point. You can deploy hundreds of megawatts of solar and batteries providing firm generation in 12-18 months. You cannot build a coal generator that quickly (usually takes 2-5 years). If you can turn on or up an existing coal generator, yes, faster. If you must build it from scratch, no, slower. Solar and batteries are not only the cheapest form of new generation, they are also the fastest to deploy.

Citations:

Economics of coal versus renewables in Southeast Asia’s energy crisis - https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/energy/coal-vs-renewables-a... - April 8th, 2026

Key points:

* Since the war in Iran began in February 2026, a surge in oil and gas prices has triggered gas-to-coal switching in Southeast Asia, pushing Asia’s coal benchmark nearly 20% above the pre-war price levels and highlighting the links between the coal, gas and oil markets.

* Gas-to-coal switching also pushed coal prices up after the 2022 gas crisis, when Asia’s coal benchmark surged to a record USD 443 per tonne in September 2023.

* Renewables sit apart from the price volatility of coal, oil and gas, as they do not require ongoing fuel inputs. In 2024, solar was already cheaper than coal in 7 of the 10 member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), according to LCOE data.

* The current gas crisis is already causing a decline in LNG demand across ASEAN countries. New ZCA analysis shows that were ASEAN to replace its planned 45 GW gas expansion with coal, costs would rise; in contrast, we found the Association could save USD 4 billion if gas expansion plans were instead replaced with solar and storage solutions by 2030.

* Even in countries with large coal reserves and coal subsidies, including China, renewables are already meeting a significant share of new electricity demand.

Coal Power Is Replaced by Renewables, Batteries, and Modern Electronics - https://www.renewable-ei.org/en/activities/column/REupdate/2... - September 18th, 2025

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HDBaseT 5 hours ago | parent [-]

You can deploy solar and batteries rapidly, Australia is doing it.

Australia has the highest number of solar panels per capita in the world. Batteries are following suit with government subsidies. Yet, Australia has some of the highest energy prices in the world, its not a fool proof solution.

My comment wasn't even really about coal, it was about oil (and fuel). I'm talking about transport (even public transport) but planes & massive tankers are the big consumers. The original point is simply we cannot just stop ships.

When ships stopped due to the routes being blocked, we pushed ever closer to a recession and people starved and died because they were denied critical produces, equipment, food and medicines all over the world. Not to mention cost of living. This is what I mean by we "cannot afford" to not use oil.

We cannot afford for the routes to be shut, we cannot ban boats, cars, planes without major economic downturn.

	▲	wasfgwp 2 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Australia is pretty unique since it’s extremely suitable for solar. Countries in more northern latitudes, especially in Europe (where you need alternative sources in winter regardless of how much solar you (realistically) build) are in a slightly different situation. Also aren’t wholesale prices in Australia very cheap or often negative? If that’s the case then the issue very high prices isn’t really on the production side but due to taxes/distribution