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| ▲ | csb6 21 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| So what is the rational reason someone who isn't a subject matter expert (assuming that's what you mean by SME) to bet in prediction markets? The platforms appear to be marketed to the general public to be used casually as a way to make quick money. Someone who is a "subject matter expert" (and given how specific many of these predictions are, being an expert usually means you are an insider with non-public information) can indeed make money as long as a bunch of idiots with worse information place bets thinking they know the outcome. This is considered to be a crime when done with other securities. |
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| ▲ | kelseyfrog 21 hours ago | parent [-] | | Whats the rational reason people buy lottery tickets, participate in sports betting, or any other EV<0 activities? Their irrationally is SMEs' edge. | | |
| ▲ | csb6 21 hours ago | parent [-] | | They do it because they get a dopamine hit from doing it, have superstitious beliefs, or have delusions that they can predict events they have no information on. Interested if you believe insider trading of stocks should be legal - aren't insiders just providing the market with more information about that stock? |
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| ▲ | SaucyWrong 17 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| Disagree. I don’t need to be a subject matter expert on the environment or fire risks to profit from a wildfire prediction market. I need enough money to buy a pack of cigarettes. EDIT: I suppose I also need to be able to purchase the “shares” in the “market” |
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| ▲ | csb6 16 hours ago | parent [-] | | A wildfire prediction market seems like a spectacularly bad idea. Essentially incentivizing arson. |
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