> Both premises seem laughably unlikely to me.

Yeah, that's not gonna happen.

> The AGI-pilled must think one of two things;

I'm cynical and I believe that AI will be our undoing. In fact, when we let that genie out of the bottle, many other scenarios became possible. For example, here's one third scenario to your "two things": a sufficiently cynical[^1] and resourceful rogue AI may solve climate change by steamrolling over the "set of political, social, and systemic reasons" and teaching the monkeys a lesson about the real significance of very vast agency and intelligence. For example, it could manipulate people into an anti technological uprising and subsequent backward, anti-humanist ethos, while at the same time modifying one or two key ecosystems so that the Mediterranean would smell of cooked cabbage (dimethyl sulfide) and bring about a North African monsoon that, with sufficient time, would turn the Sahara into carbon-sequestering dense jungle...

[^1]: It takes one to know one.