Here's an amazing study from Microsoft which I recall from back in the day (PDF):

https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/wp-content/uploads/...

Edit: Recalled -> Recall

This paper is the one and only source for every claim from the past 10 years that "scammers make mistakes in scams on purpose." Crucially, no actual scammer or former scammer or even acquaintance of a former scammer has ever corroborated it. The paper itself is pure speculation.

If anything I think that paper serves best as a reminder that just because an idea is clever and logical, that doesn't necessarily mean it's true.[1]

[1] As another example, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Gandhi

> By sending an email that repels all but the most gullible the scammer gets the most promising marks to self-select, and tilts the true to false positive ratio in his favor.

There's less need to identify the most gullible when AI drops the incremental cost of responding closer to zero.

I had a bash with that paper. It is pure and utter tosh - I started with the ... start and swiftly moved to 6. Conclusion.

"Thinking like an attacker is a skill rightly valued among defenders."

and

"Attacking as a business must identify targets, and this is easy only if we believe that attackers have solved a problem that has vexed multiple communities for decades."

Bollocks!