When is it popping? Is the AI bubble in the room with us now?

dghlsakjg an hour ago | parent | next [-]

Nvidia has ever so slightly underperformed the SP500 YTD (at the exact time this comment is being typed), so its basically the apocalypse already.

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amrit3128 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Tomorrow? Next year? In 5 years? Nobody can say. But we do know that AI is overvalued, so it WILL pop.

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aurareturn 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Well, if no body can say when it will pop, then can we really say it's a bubble and it's overvalued?

I can tell you it will pop in 10 years and when it pops, it will still be 20x bigger than in 2026. Does that even make any sense?

People said AI bubble will pop soon in 2024 and that it was overvalued. Turns out, many AI stocks 10x, 20x since 2024. Actual usage has gone exponential as well. Anthropic revenue went from $100m ARR at start of 2024 to $80b ARR today.

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ekidd 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> Well, if no body can say when it will pop, then can we really say it's a bubble and it's overvalued?

Well, given the literal trillions being spent, the only ways this pays off are:

1. AI replaces a non-trivial fraction of human employees.

2. Someone builds a Culture Mind, and humans become (hopefully) pampered pets of AIs we don't understand. Seems unlikely, but it would arguably count as a payoff even if it made money meaningless.

Or maybe the AIs don't want pets, and you get SkyNet. Which definitely doesn't care about paying off anyone's investments.

When you look at various news articles about investors, yeah, there are definitely a lot of rich people who think that they're going to automate all human labor or just bring about the Singularity. Possibly with them in charge of the rest of us. If you don't make these kinds of wild assumptions, then yeah, this is looking like one of the biggest bubbles ever.

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aurareturn 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Can we see some actual numbers, projections, models instead of vibes?

	▲	atwrk 30 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		Debt is at $3 trillion right now: https://fortune.com/2026/07/31/ai-debt-hypescalers-capex-cap... Interest alone, at assumed 5%, amounts to about $150 billions per year. That's probably higher than the combined AI revenue of the top 3 providers.

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Joel_Mckay 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Many are saying July 2027, as in the past these market corrections have correlated with Shrek movie releases.

Debt-backed investors have to pay up eventually. =3

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baalimago 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Next month perpetually

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slaw 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The AI bubble will pop when China gets access to EUV, so the earliest it could happen is 2030