The "3 years" figure has been repeated endlessly and yet the same H100s are making today roughly what they did in Jan 2024...

How long does a train track last? Does a fiber optic cable last? Both are greater than 30 years, both will persist (relatively well) without use, and the benefits of scrapping or removing them are minimal. This allowed future companies to take advantage of them. Even if GPUs running at high load last five years, if the data center they are in goes bankrupt (because the AI bubble bursts), it’s likely they’ll be stripped and sold to make way for more productive CPU-based uses and to recover some of the cost of the bankruptcy. The surrounding buildings and infrastructure will have longer use, but it doesn’t translate to a net future benefit with AI.