But the incentive to produce that intelligence is so high, that many opportunities become practical to explore. And many of them show doing AI inference workloads at 1000x cheaper and with 1000x less power, and sometimes 1000x faster.

If any one of these happens, or two, or all three, then the loans for trillions will become worthless while the use of AI can explode. The relationship between cost and ai intelligence output need not be linear over time, which is absolutely what the people financing are assuming.

Personally, I think linear over 5 years is about right, but no longer than that.

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mrec 21 hours ago | parent [-]

This is an interesting angle, and one I hadn't considered before. Would it be overly cynically to draw a line between it and the recent willingness [1] of many on the frontier to support some sort of coordinated pause or slowdown? I think that proposal has genuine value on its own merits, but it might also give a lot of overly-optimistic financing a chance to pay off before cheaper inference crashes the market.

[1] https://www.pacingthefrontier.com/

	▲	sroussey 19 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Yes, but to walk in to the market late, and not have all that debt, it will be too much of an opportunity for an aspiring company. Google was not the first search engine. But in a way, it was the last.