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mschuster91 21 hours ago

> Has anyone seen a definitive mathematical proof of this? I have seen countless articles and exposes about the hidden debt.

There's an old WSB saying: the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. The AI craze is that but on 'roids.

> These are incredibly sophisticated companies so presumably they wouldn’t let themselves get into a company ending bind.

The problem is, company C-levels don't care about the long term health of the company. They only think about next quarter (in a misguided interpretation of "shareholder duty/fiduciary duty") and their bonuses tied to their KPIs.

> But what are the chances this is actually an MBS type situation where the system is truly overloaded and a few sacrificial lambs are needed?

The system definitely is overloaded to hell and beyond after well over a decade of ZIRP. That money never got deflated out of the system in a healthy way and now everything is looking to fall apart.

Unfortunately, such events are already "priced in". VC essentially is built on 1 of 100 investments striking it big and 99 going bust. A market correction won't hurt the big guys, but it will definitely hurt all the small guys.

gradus_ad 21 hours ago | parent | next [-]

That saying goes back long before WSB

kzzzznot 21 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

WSB? Keynes said that…

coliveira 21 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> incredibly sophisticated companies

We need to stop thinking that just because they have money they're incredibly sophisticated. We have a few examples like Mark Zuckerberg, who had early success with FB, but he seems to be incapable of investing in profitable products. E. Musk: great at selling his companies, but laughably bad at making profits at the same level of expenses. Sam Altman: never had a real job he did well other than raising money. This is the kind of people that control these companies.

cavemandaveman 21 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

That's cynical nonsense that executives don't look past the next quarter. There would be none of this AI investment if that were true. It's all a long-term play with huge investments and minimal revenue by comparison in the short run.

NVDA had the foresight two decades ago to invest in CUDA. That's not next quarter thinking.