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overgard 2 hours ago

https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/openais-amazing-but-vastly...

https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/two-critical-updates-re-as...

As always, PR hype. Goalposts have not moved.

Guys, please use critical thinking. The haters don't hate by default, we hate because we're gaslit about this stuff every day and it's annoying. Extraordinary claims require proof, and they're not giving us information that would be essential to knowing if this is actually significant or not.

w4yai an hour ago | parent | next [-]

AI already have an impact, and yes this is PR hype because this is a product. Yet both can be true at the same time. We're not blindly eating what's OpenAI is serving us as gold truth, we're just admitting it's doing remarkable progress.

Remember October 2024 Pelicans [1] ? It's been only less than 2 years.

We don't know what will come in the next 2 years. But the progress doesn't seem to stop for now.

[1] https://simonwillison.net/2024/Oct/25/pelicans-on-a-bicycle/

skydhash an hour ago | parent [-]

The pelicans are still not ok to this day.

People are skeptical of the announcement because the room include several PHDs in math and physics. The prompts are not published so we can see how generic the starting prompt is.

afro88 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Gary doesn't argue it's hype though. He argues 2 things: other people are getting carried away with the result, and we don't know enough about how it was reached to know where it falls on the impressive scale.

He literally says it's an impressive feat in the second article.

efavdb 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

best point in that first link: openai doesn't tell us if they only tried to solve these 10 and each was solved (amazing) or if they asked it to solve a million problems and it got these 10. Either is great, one is more so.

hgoel an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Your comment seems entirely disconnected from the posts you linked. It's impossible to deny the results, it is not PR hype that in the past couple of weeks LLMs have resolved problems that have been open in mathematics for many years. Some of those problems had remained unresolved despite keen interest from many humans.

The only way that is PR hype is if you're invoking the insane conspiracy that frontier AI labs are just buying off results that would otherwise be career defining for a mathematician, just for marketing.

The posts you linked are urging caution regarding the exaggerated e/acc-esque lies peddled by people like Musk, not that the models haven't proven themselves as having genuine ability to contribute to research in some areas.

bluerooibos 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Gary Marcus has been moving the goalposts since day 1. The guy is a psychologist. Why would anyone care what a psychologist has to say about AI? He's likely made good money from constantly moving the goalposts and being a denier, due to the publicity he gets.

bonoboTP an hour ago | parent | next [-]

He's simply a good phone number to have for journalists under time pressure who need to add the contrarian voice to their upcoming story. He delivers it reliably, then never reflects on how he was wrong in the past, just blasts forward as if nothing happened and just makes the next bonkers claims to the journalists who are very thankful for the prompt delivery of how AI is a nothingburger, and fake and won't ever do XYZ that it then proceeds to do in N months.

I remember the time when he insisted that diffusion-based image generators trained on Internet scale data will never be able to make an image of a horse riding an astronaut. Today you can generate 4K video of that.

mef51 an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

Because he's not talking about AI, he's talking about people's psychological reactions to AI

dwaltrip an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I use these strange machines all the time. They have gotten notably smarter. That’s my personal experience.

They still do things that I find incredibly annoying and “dumb”. And I still have to clean up messes they make quite often.

But on the whole they are clearly smarter than before. No extraordinary claims needed. I just try to learn how the tool works and how to use it effectively.

Trasmatta 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Society at large is getting worse at critical thinking, because we are increasingly offloading that thinking to AI