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HardCodedBias 2 hours ago

"Gary Marcus' has a good take "

I think that is an oxymoron.

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neta1337 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

How so? His predictions were accurate so far

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energy123 2 hours ago | parent [-]

No they were not. These were his 5 predictions in 2022:

""" 1. By 2029, AI will still be unable to watch a movie and accurately explain the characters, events, conflicts, and motivations.

2. By 2029, AI will still be unable to read a novel and reliably answer questions about its plot, characters, conflicts, and motivations beyond what is stated literally.

3. By 2029, AI will still be unable to work as a competent cook in an unfamiliar kitchen.

4. By 2029, AI will still be unable to reliably create more than 10,000 lines of bug-free code from natural-language instructions or interaction with a nontechnical user, excluding simple assembly of existing libraries.

5. By 2029, AI will still be unable to convert arbitrary mathematical proofs written in natural language into symbolic form suitable for formal verification. """

There's still 3 years to go and he's already wrong on 4 out of 5.

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sweezyjeezy 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Well I don't typically side with GM, but playing devil's advocate:

1. still not wrong? Unless it's just feeding the audio or screenplay I don't think you can feed AI a full movie in a single context window yet?

2. Not sure, but can you prove this wrong? Can you feed a full, unseen new book and get that kind of answer?

3. Not wrong.

4. I think he'd probably pull you up on 'bug free' - I don't think that frontier models can reliably write 10k LOC without _any_ bugs typically (not that humans can do this either).

	▲	Philpax 20 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		4. I think they can, especially if the problem statement is well-specified and, importantly, autonomously testable. Of course, specifying a problem that meets these requirements is non-trivial, but the claim requests _a_ counterexample :P

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ducktective an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Do LLMs generate deterministic or trustworthy answers?

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an0malous 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> There's still 3 years to go and he's already wrong on 4 out of 5.

Have these been tested or are you just guessing?

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overgard 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

It can be annoying when someone you disagree with is frequently right!