I expect Nvidia to survive the crash on its own, and everyone else except Softbank to be bailed out with US taxpayer money.

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hajile 27 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

Nvidia already seems to be pivoting to "Local inferencing" with stuff like RTX Spark laptops.

The problem is that local inference machines won't allow anywhere close to their current margins or gross sales figures. At the same time, the huge overbuild of GPUs is going to crash server sales and prices for around a half-decade as companies try to avoid hardware upgrades or buy cheap, used equipment to save costs.

I think Nvidia will survive, but they'll be back to something like a 1T (or lower) valuation.

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thepasch an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

Nvidia has hordes of raucous gamers on the prowl waiting to tear their chips out of their hands the moment hyperscaler demand falters; plus, China has made sure there will always be plenty of open models to run for hobbyists and neoclouds, even if training compute were to drop off a cliff. They'll be just fine.

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patwolf 7 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

True, but Nvidia has 10x'd their market cap since the AI boom. They'll be fine, but their current financials can't be sustained by gamers alone.

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ff10 an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I want to see the number of gamers that tear the chips from the dead hands of hyperscalers to make up for the implosion of that market. If I had to guess, half of humanity does not have interest in dedicated gaming chips. Memory, that's another story.

	▲	mschild an hour ago \| parent [-]
		The gpus will be too expensive and a lot of them are not even close to useable for gaming. Any consumer gpus maybe but I suspect that nvidia will be able to pivot more quickly producing consumer gpus again.

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delecti an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

The market for video game hardware is absolutely puny in comparison to the datacenter GPU boom.

I saw it put quite well in a comment on reddit:

> In 2020, the gaming segment was 47% of revenue at around 8 billion. Today it's doubled to 16 billion, or 7% of revenue. That's right, data center went from 6 billion 2020 to around 198 billion today.

Even if gaming revenue doubles again when the AI bubble pops, their total revenue will still drop by something like 80%. I'm neither smart nor dumb enough to be confident about whether that's something Nvidia can survive.

	▲	Ekaros 12 minutes ago \| parent \| next [-]
		I think Nvidia surviving is pretty certain. They are not particularly leveraged to my understanding and their commitments are for their own products. Debt is at 12,34 billion so not that much even at their gaming revenue comparison. Now their market cap is most likely destroyed for forever... Still I little doubts about them continuing to exist.
	▲	sysguest 28 minutes ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		yeah you can't expect gamers to pay enormous "investment bank money" just to play games... plus, even old gpus run games fine