Definitely, yes, in the way the calculator did.

This is the technology - this is what it is. We've all seen it at this point. We know what it can and can't do.

Sure, there's Mistral 7b running locally on a Macbook vs some large frontier model with MoE, context caching and a nice UI - but it's not all that different.

Don't we know what LLMs are at this point?

But it's not like the mystery of AI is fully solved and all opportunity has ended. Now we have to see what can be done with it - that part I think is still mostly unexplored.

People are trying things in the software space, in music, video, legal, and there are quite a few "AI for AI" companies (AI analytics, infra solutions) - so we'll get some innovation there.

"Harnessing" - People will figure out better ways with model routing, multi-modality, caching, combining things we already know.

I'm slowly seeing the philosophy of mind creep in and make contact with software engineering. Somewhere between "AGI" and Chalmers' Hard Problem of Consciousness we'll get some new innovation around the concept of thinking itself and what it means to be an intelligent being.

Autonomous driving is paving the way (hehe) for autonomous humanoid robots. A concept I originally scoffed at, but now consider to be a very likely thing to happen sooner than we might realize. This is going to change so much, it alone is enough reason to say "AI hasn't peaked" (and these will involve interdisciplinary models like vision, navigation, and LLMs).

It's like asking if "programming has peaked" in 1999 and it would kinda be a "Yes". And then a couple years later ColdFusion would hit the shelves in a giant box like a Deluxe Edition RPG - if you need a laugh: https://www.reddit.com/r/webdev/comments/1o26h3l/i_have_deve...