Chinese are pretty pragmatic. Even if they produce more expensive chips and memory, they are still going to focus on value. But who knows, maybe India will step up again like they did for Y2K 3 decades ago.

I agree. A meeting transcript posted recently from DeepSeek's founder suggests they're going to reach for larger models as soon as they can, and not look back. The model is already bigger than my machine can handle, though (I cannot put up with 25 t/s after getting used to over 100), so I'm not impacted.

We'll make sure there will be enough regulations to have neither the electricity to power it or the companies to build it.

The EU is not a state or some federation. It's like a NAFTA+ It unfortunately doesn't have the risk averse VC system (or pragmatic state driven like China) ecosystem to support the scaling required.

But if models will be commodities, maybe that won't be such a terrible thing longterm?

Sorry we a focusing on leather handbags there.

Seems incredibly unlikely, doesn't it? (I hope for the same thing but it feels almost like wishful thinking!)

Personally I don't. Wasting enormous amounts of resources on a technology that doesn't make money, can easily be copied, and eats up everyone's energy while at the same time can be downloaded over the internet is kind of stupid.

The fact that China could catch up in what, two years, shows that this is a commodity.

EU is out of game and can't be back anytime soon.

Incursions into other nations "just because"? Economic wars, and support for foreign governments or armed groups that caused harm or instability to the entire planet? You know? Planet Earth?

Sanctions and trade policies that hurt ordinary people? Cultural dominance through Hollywood (Holy Wood, again with the sick ruling elite and their witchcraft crap), social media, brands, the poisoning of food and water on global scale?

Etc? Etc?

Most people don't hate "Americans" or their companies, they are just against your ruling elite. Live one day outside the united states and understand how the planet works for the rest of mankind and you might start to grasp on reality.

And yeah, China will catch up with hardware pretty damn soon. Jesus, you guys bought your radios from Japan not 50 years ago. Sorry, can't dominate the world's economy forever. Never happened in history.

No matter how much black magic, dark rituals, sick crap and sacrifices people on the top throws at the wall.

We're humans, after all.

So yeah, it is not against America itself or American companies, but against the ruling class. So naturally , people get excited about China entering into the match!

3...2...1... Fight!

We'll never have fewer open-weight models than exist now. They won't suddenly disappear when labs stop publishing new ones. In fact, people will keep improving them and will keep distilling new frontier models into existing open-weight models.

Then non-Chinese labs can reopen, or they could offer lower prices right now not waiting for this event.

But imagine if Chinese labs would lose. Then there will be no open models, and the prices for closed models would be raised to the maximum.

My conspiracy theory is that this is the new space race, and the CCP encourages this to show the world what Chinese engineers are capable of, and tank the Anthropic/OpenAI valuation bubble as a desirable side effect.

As opposed to closed source American models where the federal government threatens your livelihood unless you build data centers to extend pax silica?

This will never happen btw.

I'm neither pro China, nor pro US. I'm pro open weights models, and I'm pro cheaper hardware. At this point I don't see any american frontier labs releasing SOTA open weights model, and I don't see ASML/Nvidia/Samsung monopoly getting any competition from anywhere apart from China in the near future.

And what is their nefarious plan after we get "addicted to cheap shit"?