> By the time you have read this article, the professionals and their computers will have digested that material a thousand times over and have priced it in.

I think you overestimate traders. What we call smart money is very often really, really dumb from a macro perspective. Professional traders believe hype and follow trends. There is still at least 2 thesis playing out at the moment for the AI trade, and you don’t need to be a professional trader to take part: one is the AI impact on saas (the market has been very bearish on SaaS companies, and still hasn’t corrected meaningfully), and the ai infrastructure (hardware companies + hyperscalers)

I wonder with the spacex thing if this should be revised. “Smart money” have figured out what you are doing and they are at the gates.

> As a retail investor, you should buy an index fund and then forget about it.

That definitely was true.

I am unsure it is still true. Index funds have taken so much of the trade volume the are becoming momentum strategies

So long as you are happy following the market wherever it goes, and if the recent past is a guide then up is the direction, then yes.

But given the nepotism and corruption in the highest reaches of USAnian society (e.g. Trump's crypto currency scams and the blatant inside dealing and rule ignoring of the Space X float) the future looks much less certain than the past

That's the financial stakes here. That's why it's all or nothing. You're spending on a level that is only justified by the bonafide machine god being ushered into existence, not productivity or coding tools (and on relatively short time horizon). So if this doesn't change the near term trajectory of humanity to a parabolic move upward there is going to be a lot of economic pain. It's not just the spending, it's that the expectations for the returns to justify them are in a relatively short period of time.

What’s weird is how emotional people get on this. I told publicly (because I was asked, not out of an obligation to have an opinion), that the prices we pay for LLMs are likely to go up because that’s what happens when the ratio of operational assets to foreign capital drops due to the capital having been turned into heat rather than operational assets. The grief I got from people, dear Lord…

I feel obliged to step in here to say there is a grey area where these are useful tools for some applications but not on the path to AGI.

Unfortunately the hype machine has far outstripped their capabilities so far, and the amount of money spent doesn’t look like being recouped, so somebody is going to lose money, as people lost money on the overpriced spacex ipo (overpriced because of AI).

> The dotcom bust took a decade to grow and collapse

I'm inclined to think the collapse has already started but nobody wants to see it yet.

In the last few weeks SP500 is down, kospi is down, nikkei is down, US inflation is still high and growth is softer than expected. Hyper inflated stocks (Tesla, Nvidia, SpaceX) are deflating. US bonds are at a 20 year high.

Interesting times ahead.

> there is a constant pressure for everyone to have an opinion on how this is going to end while hoping it ends tomorrow so they can be vindicated

In what bubble does this pressure exist?

How do you stay out of it all, if at all?

the core issue is that you can't simply will into a existence a thing that is never going to be.

Im very convinced there's a cult-like level of psychosis in silicon valley (except in Apple) where LLM's must begin displacing labour. It simply is not happening. And the longer this continues, the crazier and unhinged they will get.

Instead of starting with the top 500 American stocks, and then adding international and small caps, you can start with a global all-market stock index--and then remove AI from that.

>I can time a bubble

What do you mean? Selling everything before this bubble pops?