I suppose the hinge point is if algorithmic improvement + compute capacity is or exponential improvement. I flip/flop between the options as I listen to the Moonshot Podcast bros (lols because of obvious over-hype) and Lex Friedman's state of 2026 AI with Nathan Lambert and Sebastian Raschka.

If exponential, then yes I see more variance humanity's short/medium term outcome. More chance of doom, more chance of boom.

If logarithmic, well then improvements continue, but they will be incremental to what we have now and we will continue into some form of widespread agent adoption. Similar to wireless communication technology is prolific, but now taken 100% for granted.

Personally, even with Sol, the results I get from "stress test" one-shot prompts are abysmal. Hallucination of solutions to non-existent bugs as popped up multiple times.

So AGI take over, meh, low chance IMO.

I think one real risk is solo or sleeper cell type nefarious actors having a semi-competent engineering consultant which can enable small-scale weapons deployment.

Overall, I think the most probable short term risk is AI companions, hyper individualization and deterioration of social institutions. Much less flashy, but much more likely.

I mean look at the effects of social media on mental health. And that was only created 1 generation ago.