> There needs to be a certain level maintained

Isn't that the "180mn to 200mn barrels"?

From what I understand, below 300 you start having issues, there's also a minimum national security level at 250 (not legally binding).

~300 - 200 = 100mn useful barrels.

If we're drawing it down by about 4 a week, that's about 25 weeks.

If it's really closer to the 180 needed to prevent collapse and hit unusable supply then it's 120mn barrels and we're at 30 weeks.

A year is 52 weeks.

That also is based on a massive assumption of constant draw rate. Something is probably going to change, who knows when. Maybe the war ends and things actually reopen soon. Maybe Iran manages to blow up Saudi pipelines avoiding the straight. Maybe China's SPR runs out (nobody knows what it's at) and international demand skyrockets again. Other reserves are likely to be eliminated soon as well, putting more international pressure.

I wouldn't have a clue what the rate will be in a month or two, but I can't imagine it'll be anywhere near the same as the past few weeks.

This is unfamiliar territory, and honestly it's still an assumption. No one is sure at what level the system needs to remain stable.