Remix.run Logo
OKRainbowKid 3 days ago

This gets repeated again and again, but wouldn't the money required to build/maintain nuclear plants be much better invested in building out renewables and battery storage? They already produce power much cheaper, and cost efficiency keeps increasing. Meanwhile power from nuclear plants are very expensive, comparatively. So why should we invest in nuclear energy? I have the impression a lot of the debate about nuclear energy and Germany's decision to fade it out is now driven more by emotion/ignorance than reason.

modo_mario 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

Nuclear is proportionally expensive for one because we build a lot less and lose insititional knowledge and manufacturing capacity. Secondly because of ridiculous legislation and europes extreme ability to fuck with it politically. Thirdly because we don't count the gas plant to cover the intermitency of the renewables as part of the cost and if they'd take those out they'd find they run out of options for the cheap storage options as they become a larger share of the grid nor did they drew out the lifetime cost over the full length of a nuclear plants lifetime (shit gets replaced in the meantime)

At this point it may very well be better to go for renewables for much more of the grid coverage (after they fix their damn grid connections) But those pushing the cost picture have been everything but honest over the past 2 decades. I still remember repeatedly getting that Lazard LCOE report thrown at me by germans with absolutely fantasy numbers for storage and such and a nuclear cost based on one unfinished american plant.

bryanlarsen 2 days ago | parent [-]

- nuclear increased in price over the period France built a lot of them. China is not currently experiencing cost price reduction in nuclear. Maybe we'd experience scale reductions in cost if we were to build at a much larger scale than that, but given that the world is already spending hundreds of billions just to build a handful of plants....

- nuclear also needs gas plants to handle peaking demands

> I still remember repeatedly getting that Lazard LCOE report thrown at me by germans with absolutely fantasy numbers for storage

Which one was that? Lazard has always consistently overestimated the cost of solar and solar+storage.

spwa4 2 days ago | parent [-]

> nuclear increased in price over the period France built a lot of them

Let's not pretend price is any concern of the people shutting down nuclear power. That's just not what it's about. Here is their page on the subject, and as you can clearly read: nuclear power "has no future".

https://www.gruene-bundestag.de/unsere-politik/was-unsere-po...

Second, Germany would not have to rebuild nuclear power, as the green party clearly shows. They only need to reopen existing plants.

It is STILL the case that reopening the existing plants would lower prices - a bit. But it would make a very large difference for German CO2 production because coal powerplants are doing baseload now and would be displaced by the nuclear plants. And if the Ukraine and Iran wars keep going it will lower prices a lot (or rather it would prevent another large price spike)

https://www.ewi.uni-koeln.de/de/aktuelles/gasverstromung-und...

> nuclear also needs gas plants to handle peaking demands

This is not a good argument given that the alternative was to switch to gas for most of the baseload, then lose the gas due to the war in Ukraine, to then switch to coal and LNG (LNG might technically be gas, but due to additional inefficiency it's worse than coal), and now losing all gas supplies (ie. from Qatar) and being forced to use even worse LNG supplies from the US.

Hell you'd think the greens would massively sponsor chemical research into LNG, since LNG efficiency is actually worse than what our bodies do to make fat. In other words: turning gas into liquid fuel (not LNG, actual liquid fuel) is possible to do with a catalyst at much higher efficiency than turning it into LNG. We don't know how, despite the fact that your body is probably doing it (to produce fatty acids) right now as you read this. You want to help climate change? Let's figure that one out, that would actually help CO2 output AND lower prices.

boringg 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

This gets repeated again and again. They are not in conflict with each other - both need to be done in tandem. It is not a this or that strategy - it is an all of the above strategy.

Nuclear is critical for long term generating power. Batteries and solar are good not able to maintain the same level of power quality and duration though are definitely incredibly important.

adrianN 3 days ago | parent [-]

Nuclear is a high-capex source of electricity. It doesn’t do well economically in a grid where power if essentially free on sunny or windy days but you need a lot of backup power for a few hundred hours per year.

boringg 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

All power projects have to look at economic viability. Every project has different needs and market dynamics. THERE IS NOT A ONE TYPE OF PROJECT WORKS FOR ALL LOCATIONS. Resources mixes vary as do the demands of the power.

I can't stress this enough solar and battery dont work everywhere and they dont provide indefinite power quality. Nor does nuclear. They all need to be resourced where appropriate.

FWIW - there aren't a lot of grids that have the resource mix you described.

palata 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> It doesn’t do well economically

Well, economy is fossil fuels. In the world after fossil fuels, we may have to redefine what "economy" means.

adrianN 2 days ago | parent [-]

That seems to have very low chances of success.

palata 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

If you define "success" as "we prevent climate change", there is zero chance of success.

But it is not binary: the less we do, the worse it will get. It's not about whether we "succeed" or not, it's about how bad we let it become.

JumpCrisscross 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

If it were true there is no point trying to avert climate change. It will literally require global economic collapse, mass death and starvation and a civilisational reset.

Fortunately, “economy is fossil fuels” is nonsense, so it actually makes sense to try and address this problem.

palata 2 days ago | parent [-]

> Fortunately, “economy is fossil fuels” is nonsense

Is it?

The economy is what we produce and consume. The economy grows when we produce and consume more, it shrinks when we produce and consume less. How do we produce stuff nowadays? With fossil fuels. There is not a single object around you that did not require fossil fuels at some point.

Economy "does well" when we have easy access to fossil fuels, it doesn't when we don't. We can observe the impact on countries where fossil fuels get harder to get. An example would be Europe, where fossil fuels have been harder and harder to get since 2007 (which corresponds to the global peak of conventional oil). Since then, Europe has been slowing down if you look at physical indicators (like which surface is built or what weight is transported by trucks). GDP is artificial, it's arbitrarily modified to "compensate" for inflation.

People in the US love to say that Europe is slowing down because of regulations and laziness and all the smart people moving to the US, but the truth is that it is slowing down because of fossil fuels.

To stop destroying the climate, we need to stop using fossil fuels, and therefore we need to redefine what we expect from "the economy", because without fossil fuels there is no way we keep producing and consuming more.

But that's not all! Even if there was a way (!), it would not resolve the problem of biodiversity loss. We are currently, measurably living in a mass extinction that is happening orders of magnitudes faster than the one of the dinosaurs. If we don't get food problems because of climate change, chances are that we will because of the mass extinction. Climate change is just one existential problem we are facing.

In Europe, we have lost 80% of insects in the last 20 years, and that has NOTHING to do with climate change. Just loss of habitat, which is a consequence of our economy growing (and humans doing what humans do, like tourism and parking lots and cutting trees and overfishing). Climate change will just make that worse, it's just starting.

> It will literally require global economic collapse, mass death and starvation and a civilisational reset.

This is a certainty if we don't do anything. Now the more we do, the more we preserve. It will still be bad, make no mistake. But there is no such thing as "it's too late to act". The less we do, the worse it gets.

JumpCrisscross 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

> There is not a single object around you that did not require fossil fuels at some point

This is sort of like saying the economy is air or the economy is sand. (What is closer to correct is the economy is, within approximation, energy.)

> the truth is that it is slowing down because of fossil fuels

American emissions per capita have been falling alongside rising GDP/capita. Europe’s malaises are broader than this.

> This is a certainty if we don't do anything

If action requires literally replacing and restarting the global economy, there is no hope. Might as well party. If, on the other hand, it’s a rewiring, it’s rational to do.

I thought we learned our lesson around hyperbolic environmental doomerism, but apparently not.

palata 2 days ago | parent [-]

> American emissions per capita have been falling alongside rising GDP/capita

GDP is artificial. Did you ever check how they correct for inflation? GDP is worth nothing for science, it's just there for economists to do... whatever they do.

> If action requires literally replacing and restarting the global economy, there is no hope. Might as well party.

I don't know how you read that from what I say. I say, "if we don't do anything, we're completely screwed. The more we do, the better it gets". But yeah, if we keep doing what we are doing, we're doomed, that's certain.

JumpCrisscross a day ago | parent [-]

> GDP is artificial

…all economic metrics are artificial. Society is artificial.

How are you defining an economy? Or is your original statement (“economy is fossil fuels”) just a tautology?

> don't know how you read that from what I say

There is no political system on the planet that can enact and survive economic collapse. If that’s what’s required, this is a fool’s errand.

Fortunately, again, you’re wrong. It’s not required, though I’m sure we’ll keep seeing governments who try the silly route replaced. The best we can do in the meantime is politically sideline folks who believe this stuff.

palata a day ago | parent [-]

> How are you defining an economy?

I said it above. The economy is what we produce and consume. Because the metrics economists use (like GDP) make no sense does not mean that the economy does not exist.

There are physical metrics to measure how the economy is doing (that I mentioned above). For instance, you can look at how many tons of stuff are being moved by trucks. If many trucks move a lot of stuff, then it means that stuff is being produced and consumed.

Another one you can measure is the surface that is being constructed. When humans in a country build houses and buildings, it is a sign that "the economy" is growing.

And it is difficult to cheat with those "physical" metrics. Whereas cheating GDP is absolutely trivial. Do you know how they correct for inflation? There is no way to "measure" inflation, it's a guesstimate. But depending on how you guesstimate it, you increase or decrease the GDP.

What we see in Europe since 2007 (the peak of fossil fuels for Europe) is that trucks are moving less and less stuff, and the surface built by humans in Europe is slowing down. Those physical estimators show that Europe is slowing down, completely correlated to fossil fuels. GDP is growing, sure... but again GDP is "manipulated" (consciously or not, that's not the point) by the numbers we put in the "inflation" box.

JumpCrisscross a day ago | parent [-]

> For instance, you can look at how many tons of stuff are being moved by trucks

Gross tonnage is a good input into "what we produce and consume." It's incomplete, however. Grossly. It excludes all services, for example. It's why we abandoned it as a measure after like the early industrial revolution.

(A better one is electricity production, which you can estimate remotely from fuel levels and thermals. It’s also woefully incomplete—the nutters trying to forecast based solely on it are influencers, not fund managers or policymakers, for good reason.)

> Do you know how they correct for inflation?

Yes.

> There is no way to "measure" inflation

This is nonsense. It must be estimated. But so must e.g. "the surface that is being constructed" depending on how one defines surface construction.

There are various measures of inflation of various utility. Some are used to deflate GDP.

Mankiw's Principles of Economics might be a good start if you're serious about your questions. Because by your metrics, decarbonistion is a folly—the measures are probably made up anyway!

palata a day ago | parent [-]

> Because by your metrics, decarbonistion is a folly—the measures are probably made up anyway!

Not sure if you're consciously being manipulative or not.

Sure, you are more eloquent than I am. But do you understand my point about estimating inflation being a lot more random than other metrics? Making me say that "any kind of metrics is always folly" is just manipulative, I'm sure you understand that it is not what I mean.

> It excludes all services, for example. It's why we abandoned it as a measure after like the early industrial revolution.

Which I'm sure is important for economists doing economy stuff. But I am convinced that there is value in seeing that after 2007, indicators like gross tonnage have been slowing down, and that is correlated with the evolution of fossil fuels.

We cannot eat services, or use them to heat our apartments, can we? Services are a luxury for when everything below works. The risk with the end of fossil fuels is that it will disrupt everything on top of which services are built. I don't think GDP is bringing much in those discussions.

JumpCrisscross 14 hours ago | parent [-]

> do you understand my point about estimating inflation being a lot more random than other metrics?

Yes. I’d argue inflation metrics are about as easy to fuck with as any emissions math I’ve seen. That doesn’t make either fundamentally wrong. But if one is irredeemably wrong, so is the other.

(In any case, you can deflate your own GDP. Nominal GDP contains zero deflation. There is no similar easy fix for emissions calculations, which I read with much wider error bars than any OECD inflation print.)

> Which I'm sure is important for economists doing economy stuff

Not the billions of people employed in services?

> indicators like gross tonnage have been slowing down, and that is correlated with the evolution of fossil fuels

Global gross tonnage is growing [1]. On the sea, your correlation works because that fleet runs on fossil fuels. If you were trying to measure Chinese economic activity using fossil-fuel metrics, on the other hand, you’d fail.

(Again, your instinct isn’t wrong. Energy is, more or less, the economy. That’s why we can decarbonise without lowering living standards. We can keep energy constant or even growing while reducing fossil-fuel use.)

[1] https://unctadstat.unctad.org/insights/theme/107

palata 8 hours ago | parent [-]

> Global gross tonnage is growing [1]

In Europe?

adrianN 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Fossil fuels can be replaced for every use case by electricity from carbon-free sources and some chemistry. The price point for replacement of course varies by application. There is no reason to assume that we can't have the same kind of economy we have today without fossil fuels. Some things will naturally become more expensive, but other things might also became cheaper.

palata 2 days ago | parent [-]

> There is no reason to assume that we can't have the same kind of economy

Has there been, in history, the same kind of economy we have today without fossil fuels? No. That's a first reason.

Are there practical replacements for every use case of fossil fuels? Most definitely not! I don't know where you get that. For those replacements we know, it has never been done at scale, so we don't know if it's possible or not. And for those we don't know... well we don't know. Just have a look at what petrochemicals are used for. And how do you make fertilisers without fossil fuels, at today's scale?

adrianN a day ago | parent [-]

You seem to believe that proof of feasibility is impossible before actually finishing the task. I disagree. And for the record, profit oriented market economies are extremely old. Much older than any large scale use of fossil fuels.

palata a day ago | parent [-]

> And for the record, profit oriented market economies are extremely old.

Of course it works if you take the part that is convenient to your argument. What about globalised economies?

adrianN a day ago | parent [-]

Trade routes spanned Eurasia before we invented writing. Faster transportation and communication only expanded economic ties. Transportation is something that is fairly easy to do without fossil fuels.

disgruntledphd2 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

> Nuclear is a high-capex source of electricity. It doesn’t do well economically in a grid where power if essentially free on sunny or windy days but you need a lot of backup power for a few hundred hours per year.

Fair enough, but it's still incredibly helpful as a source of no-carbon electricity.

jrflo 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

There will always be a need for on-demand power. Renewables are great, but cannot deal with peaks as easily and capacity is dependent on weather.

dolmen 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

Hydro is renewable, can deal with peaks and not directly dependent on weather.

Use its power down when in need of electricity. Bring water up hill when too much electricity is available.

belorn 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

Hydro is great, except for a few problems. The biggest is that they are causing extinction for several species. The second biggest in central and northern Europe is that hydro is already used in every place where its reasonable to build them, with practically no space to further expansion.

Right before the last rush to build nuclear, Europe went through an energy crisis where they did also use reverse hydro. In recent time there has been discussion to modernize and reuse those old installations, but the issue is costs. Buying energy to sell it later, while maintaining and operating the hydro power plants and pumps are not cheap (not to mention building out transmission). Even at current fossil fuel prices, natural gas and oil is cheaper and thus reverse hydro is not economical viable.

tremon 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Hydro is not renewable when the basins are being refilled by glacial melt as is the case for most of Europe, and precipitation is also becoming more erratic. For example, Iceland is currently relying on hydro power for 70% of its electricity, but current models predict that glacial runoff will peak around 2060 (or earlier, if the arctic temperature continues its upward trend). After that, the potential power to be generated from hydro will gradually decrease, which is why Iceland is now diversifying towards geothermal and wind.

ImJamal 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Won't climate change lead to more droughts making hydro less stable in the future?

palata 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Countries who can do hydro are pretty much doing as much of it as they can. Like... there really isn't much room to increase hydro unless you start inundating valleys.

ericmay 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Ok... but now we're damaging ecosystems by installing hydroelectric power stations and dams and such in these areas.

Besides, not every country can effectively utilize hydroelectric power.

Germany, like other countries, should be investing in a mix of power sources. You probably want your backbone to be nuclear and then renewables where it makes sense with a goal (at least in western countries) of also eliminating reliance on China for renewables/batteries.

Dogmatism about renewables is self-defeating.

riedel 2 days ago | parent [-]

We should make sure that the indirect cost for CO2 are added to the price of energy and imported products depending on the mix. It is one of the few areas where I think a market can fix things.

frm88 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

That would mean we all pay for the CO2 emissions of the US army since they are the world's largest single institution consumer.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333873233_Hidden_ca...

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/12/elephant-in-the-ro...

ericmay 2 days ago | parent [-]

Yea but all other countries would have to pay for the C02 emissions of their militaries too. I bet many would not be able to afford to have one anymore - might be a good thing.

ericmay 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

I’ve always thought that was a decent idea but Americans can’t even stomach higher gas prices because of the Iran war. How are they going to handle $7-$8 per gallon or more?

throw-the-towel 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

But nuclear also can't deal with peaks.

bluefirebrand 3 days ago | parent [-]

Renewables and batteries are great for peaks though. And not very good for base load

Nuclear is great for base load, not great for peaks

Our current situation is we are building tons of renewables and storage but still burning tons of fossil fuels because they cannot replace the base load very effectively. Nuclear replaces the carbon part of the equation

myrmidon 3 days ago | parent [-]

"Base load" is not an actual demand that needs to be satisfied.

Providing base load is a privilege you get to enjoy if your marginal cost is lower than anyone elses (and you want/can keep running basically all of the time).

Renewables ruin former baseload providers (like nuclear plants) because those plants are basically no longer making money whenever the sun shines (so the economics for nuclear plants got much worse).

bluefirebrand 2 days ago | parent [-]

> Providing base load is a privilege you get to enjoy if your marginal cost is lower than anyone elses (and you want/can keep running basically all of the time)

The "if you can keep running all of the time" is actually the more important factor of base load than just price.

I guess if you want to look at it through purely a price point thing, does the solar price effectively go to infinity when there are clouds out or it's night time?

Maybe base load is the wrong term for it, I don't know. All I'm saying is that solar and wind aren't generating all of the time, and building out the storage capacity to completely cover our existing needs seems kind of unfathomable.

grey-area 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

That’s why they mentioned batteries.

belorn 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The politicians in Germany went to great length to promote natural gas as the green technology to be combined with renewables, a strategy they succeed in the European Parliament and still seem to follow even when the fires roams and the pipelines get blown up. There is no seasonal grid battery storage in central and northern Europe, and outside of a few hundred household sized experiment, no grid storage is being built.

Looking at the platforms of political parties who oppose nuclear in a nearby country like Sweden, all of them highlight how thermal power plants are necessary to support further expansion of renewable energy, and those thermal power plants burn some form of fossil fuels. This include the Swedish green party.

What EU need is a ban on fossil fuels in the energy grid. Without that natural gas there is no need to buy gas from current war zones and their participants, and it would significantly decrease emissions. As long as people who oppose nuclear also agree to stop using thermal power plants, same as with the ban on ICE cars that will come into action in a few years, then the discussion of nuclear vs renewables + battery will be a fair one with everyone playing by the same rules.

Naturally in the south part of EU there is little reason to use nuclear plants. Energy demand correlates with solar production, and the need for seasonal storage is minimal. Sadly the same can not be said about central and northern Europe where wind speeds are the current dominant factor when it come to supply of energy, but seasons dictate demand. The size of storage needed for a harsh winter is magnitudes more expensive currently than reducing the need through nuclear, but that will never be tested since what countries there are actually building right now are more thermal power plants to address the issue of low supply during periods of low energy production from wind.

throw0101d 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> This gets repeated again and again, but wouldn't the money required to build/maintain nuclear plants be much better invested in building out renewables and battery storage?

Recent report on restarting German nuclear:

> The easiest group of reactors to restart could produce electricity at an average of €37 per megawatt-hour before the end of 2031.The most difficult restarts could produce electricity at roughly €58 per megawatt-hour by the mid 2030s.

* https://www.radiantenergygroup.com/reports/restarting-german...

* PDF: https://www.radiantenergygroup.com/_files/ugd/ae75b7_bc5db59...

belorn 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

That seems very cheap if it means you don't need to build new transmission. The average cost in south of Sweden is much higher than that, which in euro would be around €100 per megawatt-hour.

Prices are also expected to further increase as EU has issued regulations that customers should subsidize regions of poor transmission, in order to enable construction of more wind and solar farms where no such transmission exist.

OKRainbowKid 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Okay, and how does compare to other options? And do you have sources without an obvious conflict of interest?

foobarian 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I wonder how much battery you could install in a typical nuclear site. Maybe even stacked; if we make an apples-to-apples comparison in materials and say we can use the same amount of concrete and metal, could probably have several levels of batteries. Except no water needed, and no waste risks.

wongarsu 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

The top of this German article [1] has a rendering of a planned 1.4GW power, 6GWh storage battery plant, with the decommissioned nuclear plant in the background. The battery energy storage is a bit smaller in area and of course of lot less tall. Eyeballing, the area is actually very comparable if you deduct the power plant's parking lot. The nuclear plant is Grohnde, a 1.43GW single-reactor plant.

The similar power output is not a coincidence. The biggest bottleneck for new solar and battery storage plants in Germany is getting them connected to the grid, and the freshly decommissioned nuclear plant has a great grid connection that this project wants to reuse

1: https://www.heise.de/news/Mehr-als-1-4-Gigawatt-Riesige-Batt...

SoftTalker 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

I'm not so sure about the "no water needed" as batteries require cooling (and sometimes heating). And perhaps batteries are not risky like nuclear waste, but by volume there would me much more battery material than nuclear material, and there is fire risk that must be mitigated. You can't just wire up a big stack of batteries, they need carefully designed separation and fire suppression so that if one battery goes into a thermal runaway it doesn't take out the entire installation.

foobarian 2 days ago | parent [-]

I imagine it wouldn't be nearly in the same ballpark, since one side does not perform the classic mechanical generation from temperature difference, and deal with the associated waste heat.

AlexandrB 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> They already produce power much cheaper, and cost efficiency keeps increasing.

Yet France, which invested heavily in nuclear[1], has energy prices that are 40% lower than Germany's[2]. Something isn't adding up about the repeated claims that renewables are cheaper than nuclear.

[1] https://montel.energy/resources/blog/two-different-energy-sy...

[2] https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php...

wolvoleo 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

France's nuclear is long paid off, and there were big government investments into building the industry around it because France is a nuclear power. It's not exactly the same tech obviously but when you build nuclear weapons yourself you need a workforce and industry capable of working with the materials. Some of those costs will have found their way under defense headings instead of energy ones.

Germany didn't have this incentive and they don't have the luxury of coasting on previous investments of a bygone era. Germany would have to start from scratch with all this and without the defense component (unless they change their stance on that too)

OKRainbowKid 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

German energy prices aren't driven by renewables.

piva00 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Germany still has expensive thermal power plants which dictate the price of electricity given the bidding system used for pricing it.

Sweden and Norway have very cheap electricity while mostly being renewables.

3 days ago | parent [-]
[deleted]
ch4s3 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It depends on how much you value land use and care about the knock on effects of the associated mining. I’d rather figure out how to build out nuclear cheaply like South Korea and China and use more land for wild space. The per hectare land use of nuclear is minuscule.

hamper653 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> wouldn't the money required to build/maintain nuclear plants be much better invested in building out renewables and battery storage?

How about taking the money spent on fossil energies and invest it in both nuclear and renewables?

OKRainbowKid 18 hours ago | parent [-]

Why not spend it on the most cost efficient option with the best long term prospects?

hamper653 18 hours ago | parent [-]

It’s not either/or. We must spend on all options.

markvdb 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Just replacing expensive fossil energy with cheap renewables and storage doesn't help. The problem is Jevons paradox. Cheaper energy means more consumption.

A sensible global policy could be:

- Tax carbon positive energy consumption to death. I.e. coal, oil or natural gas.

- Tax (close to) carbon neutral energy consumption at a fixed high rate, e.g. solar, hydro, nuclear or wind. Tax nuclear separately because of its other side effects if you want.

- Use the proceeds to negatively tax carbon negative energy consumption only.

Not that I have any illusions of any policy even remotely like this ever getting enacted. Zero consensus on earth and too many dangerous and selfish idiots.

Our children will be boiling frogs and angry.

looperhacks 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

Jevons paradox is often claimed, but largely irrelevant in this case, imo. If the demand rises, the price rises again, as well. It doesn't force anybody to keep using fossil energy

markvdb 2 days ago | parent [-]

Price elasticity definitely is a thing, but I'd argue not in the way you see it.

Have a somewhat competitive energy market and falling production prices like we have for carbon neutral energy. What do you think will happen? The market will gobble up any and all production.

Look at what we currently have even with largely fossil energy. The substantial US/EU delta in energy price and energy consumption. Notice how similar the deltas are?

M95D 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

> carbon negative energy consumption

There is no carbon negative energy consumtion.

markvdb 2 days ago | parent [-]

CO2 capture can be carbon negative, even if it consumes energy.

M95D 2 days ago | parent [-]

CO2 capture is carbon negative by definition. That's not what I said.

There are some experimental methods of capturing CO2 (or rather just carbon in CO2), but I replied to a proposed negative tax on economic activities that are carbon negative as energy consumtion. There are none. There's only experimental carbon capture with no products and no services generated as an output of this "economic activity" that consumes energy and CO2 as inputs. And it costs money - a lot more money than what CO2-positive economic activities could generate if all their CO2 were to be captured.

markvdb 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

A negative tax wants carbon negative processes to exist. That clear direction is more important than whether these processes currently exist.

Experimental olivine based carbon capture looks promising to this uneducated bystander, but what do I know?

In any case, I'm not expecting climate action. Many either don't know how to even start fixing this mess. Others would rather have their own children boil than to potentially give up some material conveniences.

defrost 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

> CO2 capture is carbon negative by definition

Really? It's certainly not in actual practice - the largest actual carbon capture and sequestration projects on the globe to date are, by definition, carbon release reduction programs that are intended to store back a small percentage of what will be released as part of large natural gas extraction projects.

(eg: proposed Browse Basin (~400 km (250 mi) off NW coast of W.Australia) expansion)

(also: Chevron’s Gorgon project, the biggest CCS operation: https://australia.chevron.com/what-we-do/gorgon-project/carb... -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gorgon_Carbon_Dioxide_Injectio... -- https://ieefa.org/resources/gorgon-ccs-underperformance-hits... -- https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/12... )

It's a simple (albeit technically complex) proposition - puncture a gas basin, release large amount of CO2, grab some of that and stuff it back in the hole. Overall a net positive amount of CO2 is released, before addressing any further release as a by product of consuming the LNG, etc. But it's called CCS (carbon capture and storage) because carbon is captured and stored.

There are no larger programs at scale on the planet, they are net CO2 release programs, and less CO2 would be in the atmosphere if no LNG was extracted at all.

spwa4 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I think the point of this question is that the Green party of Germany chose in 2003 that closure of nuclear power plants was more important than global warming.

They had this as an explicit choice, and they demanded other parties went along with closing the nuclear power plants. They knew, it was discussed, that keeping them open would help with global warming, and they explicitly chose against that. Then they stood by that choice, and kept standing by it even up to 2023.

Now you obviously can't fault them for the fact that the Ukraine war would make things 10x worse (by forcing Germany back onto coal and LNG), but you CAN fault them for making that choice, and standing by it. This makes them the main responsible party for the current electricity prices problem in Germany.

European green parties have explicitly chosen that their other goals mattered more than global warming. Perhaps it would be more accurate to say they are absolutely 100% unwilling to make compromises elsewhere to help fix global warming, when they are the ones making a compromise.

And, frankly, if we can't compromise as a country in parliament we may as well stop attempting to do anything about global warming. Green parties are demanding big compromises from everybody else, but cannot give a millimeter themselves? Obviously everybody else is just going to fight them tooth and nail, forever, and we'll get nowhere.

I think that is what is meant by that question.

OKRainbowKid 2 days ago | parent [-]

I'm sorry, but your comment to me just reads like a long rant about the Green party.

spwa4 2 days ago | parent [-]

Sorry, let me put a short rant then. The Green party of Germany forced through the shutdown of nuclear power in Germany and stood by that decision, even when it became clear the already bad impact on climate change it had was made 10x worse by the war in Ukraine (forcing Germany to switch to Coal and LNG). Meanwhile this "Green" party, unwilling to make compromises themselves, is using climate change to demand enormous compromises from everyone else, guaranteeing yet another fight to stop climate change legislation.

OKRainbowKid 20 hours ago | parent [-]

They do make for a good boogeyman, that's for sure. Other parties really should study them for how they manage to force everybody else to do their bidding while having no actual power. The exit from nuclear and the hated "GEG" / heating act were both conservative CDU initiatives after all, who are now retroactively being attributed to the greens to fuel the conservative culture war.

spwa4 13 hours ago | parent [-]

> how they manage to force everybody else to do their bidding while having no actual power

Oh the traditional European way. "You need 50% of the votes in parliament of a government. It's either us or the extreme right. Here's our list of demands, and a phone number. Kthxbye"

iso1631 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Of course it would, but there's less profit for capitalists to make with distributed sovereign renewable energy.

30 years ago the answer was nuclear. Not today, it's just a distraction to try to keep us burning dead dinosaurs for longer.

AlexandrB 3 days ago | parent [-]

The environmentalists who railed against nuclear for the last 30 years are very much responsible for how many dead dinosaurs we've burnt over that time. Excuse me if I'm skeptical about what they now say about energy policy.

To put it another way, I could flip your statement on its head: Renewables are just a distraction to try to keep us burning dead dinosaurs for longer instead of building durable nuclear power capacity.

iso1631 2 days ago | parent [-]

If you have $1b to spend today, you can generate more energy and more quickly by installing solar or wind than you can by installing nuclear

palata 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

One problem with renewables is that they rely a lot on electronics, which relies a lot on petrochemicals (just to build them) and on globalisation. In a world without abundant oil, can we keep producing and maintaining as many solar panels as we need?

Nuclear is different in that regard.

OKRainbowKid 2 days ago | parent [-]

"renewables increase oil dependency" now that is an argument I haven't seen before.

palata 2 days ago | parent [-]

Today, pretty much everything you do increases oil dependency. What's clear is that we will have less and less oil (just because... physics: it's limited) and anyway we need to use less and less oil (because climate change).

So the question is: what can we preserve once we don't have oil anymore? And my point was that renewables are piloted with electronics, and we haven't tried building and maintaining that system in a world without oil.

People like to extrapolate the growth of renewables, but they tend to forget that the current growth is totally subsidised by oil: your solar panel was built and transported with oil, period.

If you are serious about the "after the end of oil", you have to wonder if that system works, at scale, without oil. Don't you?

bluefirebrand 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

> This gets repeated again and again, but wouldn't the money required to build/maintain nuclear plants be much better invested in building out renewables and battery storage? They already produce power much cheaper, and cost efficiency keeps increasing

Our power demands are increasing faster than we can build out renewables and storage.

Despite how much investment we are making into solar, wind, batteries, we're still burning more carbon year over year to make up for the demand for energy. We need a source of energy that can actually replace the base load carbon, not just augment it like renewables are. Nuclear is the most likely source to use for that purpose.

Edit: if we're being honest, we probably should have built out nuclear 20, 30, 40 years ago but we didn't. The expense now is kind of the cost of our poor policy decisions in decades past. We can continue to make poor decisions or we can learn our lesson and eat the cost now to fix those mistakes. I think failing to invest and shift to nuclear now would be yet another instance of passing the buck to the future generations, with even more interest