I think what's happened, so far at least, is productivity has been moved around.

Anyone doing consulting has seen it, where now the "I vibe coded this last week" competition is way more intense. Basically the people with the problems now have a chance to spin up something that looks like the solution they want, they then get in trouble and need someone to sort it out.

LLMs _are_ great tools for software development but if you haven't noticed their near complete inability to reason about why what they're doing might work you haven't been trying hard enough.