> Exponential View, a consultancy, counts $175bn of generative-AI revenue, on an annualised basis, in June. In a recent paper Anton Korinek of Anthropic and Patrick McKelvey of the Bank of Canada estimate total “AI services” revenue. Adapting their methodology, we reckon this was $220bn (again annualised) in the first quarter of this year. Ramp’s data imply that 2-3% of business spending now goes on AI, pointing to $170bn a year.

So between $170bn-220bn in annualized AI revenue today. Maybe it doesn't cover trillion-dollar bets but this is a very substantial number.

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tim333 17 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

And the total capex spend to date is roughly $1tr so revenues are ~20% of capex. It doesn't seem ridiculously out of whack.

They don't have to do the future spending unless revenues are coming in appropriately.

(source on the capex to date https://valueaddvc.com/ai-spending)

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woeirua 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

This is also at the end of the tokenmaxxing era, so I'm not sure I would draw a straight line out from here. A LOT of companies are clamping down on token costs right now.

	▲	pu_pe 4 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		I wouldn't bet on token consumption going down any time soon. In the past year or so, the increase has been exponential [1]. [1] https://en.macromicro.me/charts/148532/world-openrouter-toke...
	▲	frankbreetz 5 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		Even more companies are just starting AI/ML initiatives. The tokenmaxxing thing only happened at a handful of tech companies, most companies don't have unlimited money to do this kind of thing. Once the Pathfinders find out where the real value is there is much more room for growth from companies who have be mindful of budget.