In order for model safety regulation to be effective, you need everyone capable of producing models to sign on to that safety framework.

That will never happen.

As such, there is no "solution" here.

The best most perfect regulation in the US won't prevent a malicious actor in the US from running a dangerous model. It's simply too easy to VPN to a country that doesn't care about AI safety and to run or download that model and run it in the US.

There's no solution to this, which is why option 2 is the only option. The only thing safety regulations can possibly do is blunt the usage of "unsafe" models. And the primary people that will be blunted by it are people that do not and would not use these unsafe models in an unsafe fashion.

It's not that I think regulation is always bad/wrong whatever, I'm no libertarian. But I also recognize when regulation is pointless. You can't regulate away forbidden knowledge, which is effectively what a dangerous model is.