Personally, I think you're both right, bit whatever the end result is will depend entirely on the narrative that those in power chooses as the winner.

Maybe open weights models get banned, but the between-the-lines good news about that is that they'll still be available to those who know, which also means that bad banning can be overturned if and when 'those in power' are a different group.

Additionally, it might just mean that the US falls behind, bit I doubt those that are at risk of 'falling behind' would actually pay heed to a ban on the open weights models (privately at least).