This Pandora box is already open. Any argument about guardrails now are only attempts to create an artificial monopoly or keep this power in the hand of a single nation state, and _that_ is the absolute worst, most authoritarian future possible.

I think you're right. "Guardrails" as a concept has always struck me as a band-aid solution which any sufficiently motivated actor will circumvent by either bypassing them or using unrestricted, open-weight models.

In order to start securing and accepting our new reality we need to assume that capable, open-weight, unrestricted models will be widely available, and that their 3-6 month lag behind frontier proprietary models is just our forewarning of what attackers will soon be capable of. Trying to legislate against or control trade in such a valuable commodity is folly.

I also think that lag is going to shrink over time as the open-weight labs get more capable, acquire more hardware and the plateau starts to emerge.

How is it already open? There has been ONE successful AI-driven cyberattack, and that was done by a model in testing that no one has access to. What would the picture be today if OpenAI and Anthropic had released 5.6 Sol and Mythos to everyone with no cyber restrictions (which is what everyone here was advocating for)?