How about WWI? This feels more like the start of that - blundering toward catastrophe.

This situation does not resemble the beginning of WW1. wW1 was caused more or less by an inept leader (the Herman Kaiser Wilhelm) with way too much power.

Putin cannot play the part Wilhelm played in 1914 because Russia has very little power.

Xi Ping cannot play the part Wilhelm played because he is too smart (he is one of the shrewdest and smartest leaders rn). If Xi Ping starts to lose it, then yeah, we may have WW1. Until then this is a very different situation.