Excluding all the capex from AI this last quarter has been one of their best.

There is quite a bit of information out there as to how Google is achieving short term growth in their core search business. And boy, it is ugly. It does not signal long term continued growth.

[dead]

Now Microsoft, them I'd short. In a way I have by starting my own company to undermine their various competitive advantages comprehensively

Microsoft is in a better position (as their b2b ecosystem can realistically be made LLM-agnostic), but Google will be fine.

Have you seen Microsoft’s price over the last year. If AI doesn’t pan out they’re going to be the next IBM.

Agreed, and in my opinion he's 100% right. But I'm still invested in both.

The market hasn't been working on fundamentals for a long time. I have a fair amount of value stocks and a bunch of cash lying around, so I'll be ok.

I really feel for anybody trying to invest to grow right now; there's no obvious safer play.

Like?

> Gemini’s integration is, I think, absolutely awesome - it’s completely changing the way I interact with the concept of googling and finding answers,

Oh, me too. The way it writes things that look like they address my question, and then links references that totally don't makes me dread Googling in a way I hadn't yet. For probably five years, I've been doing DDG first and Google when I DDG doesn't work well and usually Google doesn't either, so I already have dread for Google, but this makes it worse.

Nailed it. I didn't state this explicitly, but:

> So your short could work, but it’s not going to work for google’s involvement in an AI-bubble, it’s predicated on the entire market tanking

Is indeed a required assumption. Major return is not going to happen with this, Not losing a big chunk of my money is the goal!

> SpaceX I actually bought at the IPO price because I think the company will be around in 30 years time, so as fraudulent and mispriced as it is, having a small holding over that kind of horizon I believe will be profitable. And I want to be that kind of old-timer who can chuckle at buying it at the IPO and holding through the crash and still holding when they are on Mars and beyond and SPCX is worth multiples of what it is today.

I think that's a fine play as well. The short is more of an "This IPO price doesn't make sense; sell within a year after it settle"

That’s a pretty weird take considering they’re down 21% in the last 2 months. How, exactly, is this early?

Sage advice!. In shorts like these, there's no outcome that "wins big" unfortunately, unless you do it with large amounts of money. (Unlike a long position on an individual stock that 10xs, or options which are much riskier). But... it will ideally make the landing softer after the Fall.

Most sane comment.

Even in the last Elon Musk interview by The Economist, he admited that it's likely China will win at the end.

The gap is so close now. Opinions matter not, the Chinese will have their own GPUs, RAM and everything they need.

Giants like google and spacex are the few that can handle it because their business is not only about shipping the best models.