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esseph 7 hours ago

Drones shot down in Romania, Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Finland, etc.

These are probes. Judging responses and response times.

Rumor is Polish GROM have been inside Russia for months.

Edit: See sources in my comment below. I bring receipts.

topspin 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> These are probes. Judging responses and response times.

Some, yes. Many are merely defective units. These weapons are being manufactured in enormous quantity and deployed rapidly with minimal quality control: based on the reported numbers over Ukraine, the net manufacturing rate is about 10 per hour. Inevitably, some are defective and fail to follow waypoints. Romania is on a line through numerous targets in Ukraine from the Kursk region where many Russian drone flights begin, so Romania ends up being the unintended destination.

The good news is that the defects likely represent resource problems for the manufacturers. The same phenomena has been noted with increasing failed missile launches from Russia.

notathrowaway51 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Can you elaborate on the last sentence? It sounds crazy.

Kubuxu 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

There are rumours that Polish GROM has been taking “vacations” in Ukraine. As in “we cannot officially approve your presence there but we won’t stop you either”, from the government.

gattr 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I watched a related Chris Cappy video the other day:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RBY1cY-GF8

> Poland's elite GROM commandos have become legendary (...) in this episode, we explore (...) the covert war between Poland and Russia, and why Polish-speaking commandos are appearing inside Russian territory.

matkoniecz 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

yes, it is a big [citation needed] for me

esseph 7 hours ago | parent [-]

See gattr's comment above

Basically GROM getting "leave" and then ending up with their whole team inside Ukraine as "contractors", just with deniability.

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/polish-mercenaries...

Regarding efforts to provide deniability for their operations, a Polish officer informed him: “we worked out a formula for our presence in Ukraine … we were simply sent on paid leave. Politicians pretended not to see this.” The Polish Volunteer Corps has appeared to use the same model to provide cover for the mass deployment of Polish Armed Forces personnel, who are technically former personnel when entering the theatre, with their presence having for years been widely reported on multiple frontlines. In February 2026, the lower house of the Polish parliament adopted legislation to provide legal cover to Polish citizens who fought in the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian War.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/07/03/russia-pla...

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/07/12/8043770/

https://abcnews.com/International/wireStory/baltics-poland-w...

Edit:

Added: https://youtu.be/5RBY1cY-GF8?is=rVFFKVnBxkmsF9aM

Pic: https://x.com/intermarium24/status/1659954927299440641

justsomehnguy 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

It's always amusing when one side claims what the presence of NATO personnel in UA is "just Russian lies" only to post the confirmation of it themselves.

It's even more amusing when you see pictures like this https://i.redd.it/ex4jgoqir4qg1.png

rainworld 3 hours ago | parent [-]

https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/celebration_parallax

justsomehnguy 43 minutes ago | parent [-]

Nice one, thanks.

squidbeak 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

You are mixing legitimate sources reporting the intelligence suggesting Russia is seeking a provocation in Poland with a Kremlin propganda channel lying about Polish commandos operating in Ukraine.

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/military-watch-magazine-bias/

cingraa 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Occam's razor. Decoy drones with a bit more fuel or favorable wind.