For tech it truly depends on your geo.

If you are in Western Europe, then yes it's because of a shadow recession.

If you are in Seattle, then it's because the larger employers are shifting headcount to the Bay or abroad.

If you are not in the Bay, NYC, or Seattle, it's because domestic nearshoring during 2018-23 failed (eg. Cisco, NetApp, and Google in RTP)

I've written about this before on here [0][1]

[0] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45466975

[1] - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47174561