my read is that everyone wins (but especially big tech) in the open weight world — except anthropic and openai. (i suspect even google could live with the open weight scenario; they are in a sense the only tech company that is perfectly hedged in this respect.)
this is presumably part of why openai and anthropic have not been shy about advertising the scarier strains of their models, these past few months; they basically have to force the white house's hand or risk being commoditized among the various other options in a microsoft/openrouter dropdown.