Ironic that polymarkets were being advertised as helping society make better predictions.

jambalaya8 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

John Brunner and Alvin Toffler both made stark warnings wrapped in futuristic giddiness about things like it. People like Fuller no doubt thought polling on a large scale was terrific. There were old usenet groups and BBS subs (minus the money aspect) experimenting with the model. I do not believe they ever are or were good in a largescale model (money or not).

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mrandish 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I mean wisdom of crowds, super-forecasters, calibration and pre-registration are useful tools that can result in better predictions, turning it into online gambling is where it went sideways.

	▲	Terr_ 2 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Mini-rant: Promoters claim that the system serves a public good by helping society discover/converge on useful truths sooner. Even where the question/event is of public interest, the opposite happens instead. People with expertise or non-public information are incentivized to misdirect and delay as long as possible, as that maximizes what they can make from betting.