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kalkin 5 hours ago

> I'm quite influenced by Ed Zitron's reporting

Zitron has been predicting an imminent bubble pop since 2023 (although in less and less falsifiable terms), as OpenAI and Anthropic revenues have steadily grown 3-10x per year, but people keep listening. Zitron has done a lot to misinform the public but at some point you have to conclude it's demand-driven, and people won't re-evaluate his credibility because he tells them what they want to hear.

Useful: https://www.theargumentmag.com/p/ais-biggest-critic-has-lost...

danesparza 5 hours ago | parent [-]

Revenue and profit are not the same.

And you didn't even mention the debt these companies have accrued in the last 3 years.

References:

https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/big-tech/ai-tech-...

https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/article/techs-ai-debt-b...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertszczerba/2026/07/17/bond-...

kalkin 4 hours ago | parent [-]

Right, I didn't mention anything about profit or debt.

The question is whether this is a bubble that's going away - whether "AI will just be turned off". A revenue trajectory indicating a vast increase in actual consumer/enterprise usage every year indicates otherwise. This is true regardless of whether or not forward-looking investment becomes too much at some point. If CSPs or AI labs have bought more compute than they can sell at current prices, maybe they'll go bust, but at that point supply and demand mean compute and therefore AI inference becomes much cheaper, which is unlikely to make it go away.